關於 the road not taken analysis ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

根據計算，100萬人遊行隊伍要從維多利亞公園排到廣東；200萬人遊行則要排到泰國。

順道一提香港15～30歲人口約莫100出頭萬人。以照片人群幾乎都是此年齡帶來看，兩個數字都是明顯誇大太多了。

另一個可以參考的是1969年的Woodstock Music & Art Fair，幾天內湧進40萬人次，照片看起來也是滿山滿谷的人。（http://sites.psu.edu/…/upl…/sites/851/2013/01/Woodstock3.jpg）

當年40萬人次引發驚人的大塞車，幾乎花十幾個小時才逐漸清場。

而香港遊行清場速度明顯快得多。

順道一提，因此運動而認定「你的父母不愛你」的白痴論述也如同文化大革命時的「爹親娘親不如毛主席親」般開始出現：

https://www.facebook.com/SaluteToHKPolice/videos/350606498983830/UzpfSTUyNzM2NjA3MzoxMDE1NjMyMTM4NjY3MTA3NA/

EVERY MAJOR NEWS outlet in the world is reporting that two million people, well over a quarter of our population, joined a single protest.
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It’s an astonishing thought that filled an enthusiastic old marcher like me with pride. Unfortunately, it’s almost certainly not true.
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A march of two million people would fill a street that was 58 kilometers long, starting at Victoria Park in Hong Kong and ending in Tanglangshan Country Park in Guangdong, according to one standard crowd estimation technique.
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If the two million of us stood in a queue, we’d stretch 914 kilometers (568 miles), from Victoria Park to Thailand. Even if all of us marched in a regiment 25 people abreast, our troop would stretch towards the Chinese border.
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Yes, there was a very large number of us there. But getting key facts wrong helps nobody. Indeed, it could hurt the protesters more than anyone.
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For math geeks only, here’s a discussion of the actual numbers that I hope will interest you whatever your political views.
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DO NUMBERS MATTER?
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People have repeatedly asked me to find out “the real number” of people at the recent mass rallies in Hong Kong.
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I declined for an obvious reason: There was a huge number of us. What does it matter whether it was hundreds of thousands or a million? That’s not important.
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But my critics pointed out that the word “million” is right at the top of almost every report about the marches. Clearly it IS important.
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FIRST, THE SCIENCE
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In the west, drone photography is analyzed to estimate crowd sizes.
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This reporter apologizes for not having found a comprehensive database of drone images of the Hong Kong protests.
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But we can still use related methods, such as density checks, crowd-flow data and impact assessments. Universities which have gathered Hong Kong protest march data using scientific methods include Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Hong Kong, and Hong Kong Baptist University.
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DENSITY CHECKS
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Figures gathered in the past by Hong Kong Polytechnic specialists using satellite photo analysis found a density level of one square meter per marcher. Modern analysis suggests this remains roughly accurate.
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I know from experience that Hong Kong marches feature long periods of normal spacing (one square meter or one and half per person, walking) and shorter periods of tight spacing (half a square meter or less per person, mostly standing).
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JOINERS AND SPEED
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We need to include people who join halfway. In the past, a Hong Kong University analysis using visual counting methods cross-referenced with one-on-one interviews indicated that estimates should be boosted by 12% to accurately reflect late joiners. These days, we’re much more generous in estimating joiners.
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As for speed, a Hong Kong Baptist University survey once found a passing rate of 4,000 marchers every ten minutes.
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Videos of the recent rallies indicates that joiner numbers and stop-start progress were highly erratic and difficult to calculate with any degree of certainty.
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DISTANCE MULTIPLIED BY DENSITY
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But scientists have other tools. We know the walking distance between Victoria Park and Tamar Park is 2.9 kilometers. Although there was overspill, the bulk of the marchers went along Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, which is about 25 meters (or 82 feet) wide, and similar connected roads, some wider, some narrower.
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Steve Doig, a specialist in crowd analysis approached by the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), analyzed an image of Hong Kong marchers to find a density level of 7,000 people in a 210-meter space. Although he emphasizes that crowd estimates are never an exact science, that figure means one million Hong Kong marchers would need a street 18.6 miles long – which is 29 kilometers.
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Extrapolating these figures for the June 16 claim of two million marchers, you’d need a street 58 kilometers long.
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Could this problem be explained away by the turnover rate of Hong Kong marchers, which likely allowed the main (three kilometer) route to be filled more than once?
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The answer is yes, to some extent. But the crowd would have to be moving very fast to refill the space a great many times over in a single afternoon and evening. It wasn’t. While I can walk the distance from Victoria Park to Tamar in 41 minutes on a quiet holiday afternoon, doing the same thing during a march takes many hours.
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More believable: There was a huge number of us, but not a million, and certainly not two million.
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IMPACT MEASUREMENTS
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A second, parallel way of analyzing the size of the crowd is to seek evidence of the effects of the marchers’ absence from their normal roles in society.
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If we extract two million people out of a population of 7.4 million, many basic services would be severely affected while many others would grind to a complete halt.
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Manpower-intensive sectors of society, such as transport, would be badly affected by mass absenteeism. Industries which do their main business on the weekends, such as retail, restaurants, hotels, tourism, coffee shops and so on would be hard hit. Round-the-clock operations such as hospitals and emergency services would be severely troubled, as would under-the-radar jobs such as infrastructure and utility maintenance.
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There seems to be no evidence that any of that happened in Hong Kong.
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HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS?
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To understand that, a bit of historical context is necessary.
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In 2003, a very large number of us walked from Victoria Park to Central. The next day, newspapers gave several estimates of crowd size.
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The differences were small. Academics said it was 350,000 plus. The police counted 466,000. The organizers, a group called the Civil Rights Front, rounded it up to 500,000.
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No controversy there. But there was trouble ahead.
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THINGS FALL APART
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At a repeat march the following year, it was obvious to all of us that our numbers were far lower that the previous year. The people counting agreed: the academics said 194,000 and the police said 200,000.
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But the Civil Rights Front insisted that there were MORE than the previous year’s march: 530,000 people.
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The organizers lost credibility even with us, their own supporters. To this day, we all quote the 2003 figure as the high point of that period, ignoring their 2004 invention.
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THE TRUTH COUNTS
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The organizers had embarrassed the marchers. The following year several organizations decided to serve us better, with detailed, scientific counts.
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After the 2005 march, the academics said the headcount was between 60,000 and 80,000 and the police said 63,000. Separate accounts by other independent groups agreed that it was below 100,000.
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But the organizers? The Civil Rights Front came out with the awkward claim that it was a quarter of a million. Ouch. (This data is easily confirmed from multiple sources in newspaper archives.)
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AN UNEXPECTED TWIST
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But then came a twist. Some in the Western media chose to present ONLY the organizer’s “outlier” claim.
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“Dressed in black and chanting ‘one man, one vote’, a quarter of a million people marched through Hong Kong yesterday,” said the Times of London in 2005.
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“A quarter of a million protesters marched through Hong Kong yesterday to demand full democracy from their rulers in Beijing,” reported the UK Independent.
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It became obvious that international media outlets were committed to emphasizing whichever claim made the Hong Kong government (and by extension, China) look as bad as possible. Accuracy was nowhere in the equation.
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STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN
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At universities in Hong Kong, there were passionate discussions about the apparent decision to pump up the numbers as a strategy, with the international media in mind. Activists saw two likely positive outcomes.
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First, anyone who actually wanted the truth would choose a middle point as the “real” number: thus it was worth making the organizers’ number as high as possible. (The police could be presented as corrupt puppets of Beijing.)
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Second, international reporters always favored the largest number, since it implicitly criticized China. Once the inflated figure was established in the Western media, it would become the generally accepted figure in all publications.
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Both of the activists’ predictions turned out to be bang on target. In the following years, headcounts by social scientists and police were close or even impressively confirmed the other—but were ignored by the agenda-driven international media, who usually printed only the organizers’ claims.
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SKIP THIS SECTION
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Skip this section unless you want additional examples to reinforce the point.
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In 2011, researchers and police said that between 63,000 and 95,000 of us marched. Our delightfully imaginative organizers multiplied by four to claim there were 400,000 of us.
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In 2012, researchers and police produced headcounts similar to the previous year: between 66,000 and 97,000. But the organizers claimed that it was 430,000. (These data can also be easily confirmed in any newspaper archive.)
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SKIP THIS SECTION TOO
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Unless you’re interested in the police angle. Why are police figures seen as lower than others? On reviewing data, two points emerge.
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First, police estimates rise and fall with those of independent researchers, suggesting that they function correctly: they are not invented. Many are slightly lower, but some match closely and others are slightly higher. This suggests that the police simply have a different counting method.
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Second, police sources explain that live estimates of attendance are used for “effective deployment” of staff. The number of police assigned to work on the scene is a direct reflection of the number of marchers counted. Thus officers have strong motivation to avoid deliberately under-estimating numbers.
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RECENT MASS RALLIES
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Now back to the present: this hot, uncomfortable summer.
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Academics put the 2019 June 9 rally at 199,500, and police at 240,000. Some people said the numbers should be raised or even doubled to reflect late joiners or people walking on parallel roads. Taking the most generous view, this gave us total estimates of 400,000 to 480,000.
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But the organizers, God bless them, claimed that 1.03 million marched: this was four times the researchers’ conservative view and more than double the generous view.
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The addition of the “.03m” caused a bit of mirth among social scientists. Even an academic writing in the rabidly pro-activist Hong Kong Free Press struggled to accept it. “Undoubtedly, the anti-amendment group added the extra .03 onto the exact one million figure in order to give their estimate a veneer of accuracy,” wrote Paul Stapleton.
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MIND-BOGGLING ESTIMATE
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But the vast majority of international media and social media printed ONLY the organizers’ eyebrow-raising claim of a million plus—and their version soon fed back into the system and because the “accepted” number. (Some mentioned other estimates in early reports and then dropped them.)
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The same process was repeated for the following Sunday, June 16, when the organizers’ frankly unbelievable claim of “about two million” was taken as gospel in the majority of international media.
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“Two million people in Hong Kong protest China's growing influence,” reported Fox News.
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“A record two million people – over a quarter of the city’s population” joined the protest, said the Guardian this morning.
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“Hong Kong leader apologizes as TWO MILLION take to the streets,” said the Sun newspaper in the UK.
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Friends, colleagues, fellow journalists—what happened to fact-checking? What happened to healthy skepticism? What happened to attempts at balance?
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CONCLUSIONS?
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I offer none. I prefer that you do your own research and draw your own conclusions. This is just a rough overview of the scientific and historical data by a single old-school citizen-journalist working in a university coffee shop.
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I may well have made errors on individual data points, although the overall message, I hope, is clear.
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Hong Kong people like to march.
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We deserve better data.
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We need better journalism. Easily debunked claims like “more than a quarter of the population hit the streets” help nobody.
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International media, your hostile agendas are showing. Raise your game.
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Organizers, stop working against the scientists and start working with them.
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Hong Kong people value truth.
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We’re not stupid. (And we’re not scared of math!)

Yuna Kim's interview after Sochi Olympic

It was a tough interview. With someone who has been skating for 18 years, and just ended her amateur career, the interview was difficult even before it began. It wasn’t just that the person interviewed was already so well known; It’s also that reporter(interviewer) and Yuna are more than mere interviewer and interviewee.

Before working for , the interviewer worked as Yuna’s manager from late 2008 to right after 2010 olympics. The job was mainly looking after Yuna in her training at Toronto. This interview offers glimpses of Yuna’s own story, as well as one from her former manager’s point of view.

Retired, but still training

Even before Sochi Olympics, the interviewer received many requests directly and indirectly to offer insight to Yuna’s everyday life. She was looking to be the first from Korea and third in history to attain the “Back to Back Champion” title. In fear of affecting such endeavor, the reporter abstained from writing about Yuna till this day. It would be the first comprehensive interview she has given to the press.

We met Yuna at her office in Seoul, and even from the first glance she looked very thin. Leading up to Sochi, she continued to say that constant loss of weight has been a worry for her.

“At Vancouver, I had to plan my diet and such to control weight. But for Sochi, I just kept losing weight. I didn’t even have too much appetite, so eating itself was really done mandatorily. I always thought “I have to eat this to train.” Even one incomplete meal led straight to weight loss. Just to keep stamina up I had to eat out of duty, and it even became stressful once in a while.”

-Now I can really feel that I’m not a “skater”(professional, or amateur really…) anymore.

“Because usually, at this time of the year, I am thinking “Yes! The season’s over!” yet at the same time I am worrying about the following season. But now I don’t have that and I fully realize that I am retired. When I was training for a competition, even if my first training session of the day goes well, I had pressure to do my second session well. But now that I’m out of the competition, I don’t have such pressure any more.”

Braced herself for a lower-than-expected score before Sochi

Even while she talked of her continuing training, she seemed very happy. It was as if she has begun to enjoy the life after retirement. Wouldn’t she have any sentiments left for the Sochi games, would the result still be on her mind, and this was her answer.

“Just before Sochi, I performed many clean programs during practice. I was confident that if I don’t choke, I would be able to pull of a clean program at the competition. All things aside, I skated clean thankfully as I thought, and the results are up to the judges.

I mean, I’ve been to so many competitions, and there have been quite some times when my score wasn’t high as I had expected. Of course I shouldn’t be the one to say that I had expected correctly though. I always enter a competition with the thought that there is always a possibility of a score that I can’t quite understand or accept.

It was the same for the Winter Games this year. So I did a lot of imagining of an unexpected score coming out. So it wasn’t even shocking. I already knew before my turn in free skate that other skaters had received high scores, so I guess that’s why I didn’t look so surprised at the Kiss&Cry.

It’s not as if such reaction was planned. It’s just that up to the Olympics, I wasn’t thinking “I have to win.” I was thinking more along the lines of ending things well, and I just thought that I would feel so free after this competition.”

-You were spotted crying in the mix zone after Kiss&Cry.

“Tears just came out after the first interview in the mix zone. I was about to answer and they just came streaming down. They weren’t tears of anger or resentment; I was about to say that I was happy that things came to a close. All this time, it was so hard with lack of motivation and stuff.

To be truthful, the two seasons leading to the Olympics were the toughest time as a skater. I felt each moment how hard it is to be without a goal. After the conference about coming back to competition, and getting back to training, I just couldn’t get myself motivated. It was demanding both physically and mentally.

-How did you overcome such times?

“Well, it wasn’t a matter of overcoming really. I don’t really think you can. I think you can only rely on time to solve it. It was so tough but it was a fact that I couldn’t quit… I just thought accepting the situation as it is and getting myself together was what I could do. I already said I’d go to Sochi, and you can’t nullify your previous statement just due to lack of motivation. When I really didn’t feel like training, I rested. I know now that training on such days isn’t any better than not. And while resting I could get my thoughts together too. I got myself together by accepting the fact that I’m going through tough time when I was. And all the while I always thought to myself: that I was a person who takes responsibility for the work that I’d been given.”

After the Olympics, there have been statements that Yuna may have won with one more triple jump. It was saying that Yuna’s technical score was lower than Sotnikova’s due to lack of a jump. I asked Yuna what she thought of such speculation. Her answer was very definite.

“The results came out and also did many opinions and analysis. But it’s not as if I can go back and do another triple. It’s all done and past. There is nothing I can do. I don’t worry about it any more.”

“one in a hundred years” (phrase like one in a million)

Working as her manager, the reporter had met many sports marketing experts. They all observed that Yuna was someone that may come once every hundred years in Korean sports history. An athlete with top notch caliber with star quality that doesn’t come second to teenage idol stars; such sentiments were shared by foreign marketers as well.

Because of this, many people around Yuna experienced many “firsts.” The marketing scene had to learn how to utilize an active athlete who receives such spotlight in marketing. They all silently agreed that such marketing would have to be done on a level that wouldn’t jeopardize her performance.

Before Vancouver Olympics, the entire commercial crew had to fly all the way over to Toronto for shooting.
It was the same for the press. The Korean press was lost in front of a person who was racking up so much interest from the public, yet had so little time for interviews. As Vancouver Olympics approached, even foreign press had to express their hurry.

Because she had so many interview requests, “Media Week” was held in Toronto. NBC, NYT, NHK, CBC, along with countless Korean media went over to Toronto during the week.

People who made YUNA

How could Yuna become “one in a hundred years” athlete? With the innate talent and perfect body for figure skating set aside, we could think of the environment that was provided to her to focus solely on skating.

As is well known already, her mother Mee Hee Park has had a great part in such environment. Yuna spoke of her mother as such:

“On some occasions I have said that it was tough because of her and such, but now I can understand her. So when I see young skaters arguing with their mothers, I can sort of understand both sides, not just the skaters’.

Mrs. Park’s efforts were greater than is publicized. She was famous even in Toronto for her efforts. The best seat that overlooks the rink was always hers, and the local skaters’ parents even called the seat “Yuna’s camp.”

Coaches can never be overlooked either. Yuna says that she “was able to meet the right coaches at the right time.”

“I have had 8 coaches thus far including Mr. Ryu who suggested competing. After Mr.Ryu, I learned all the triple jumps from Mrs. Shin. Now I ended my career with the two of them by my side. Maybe it was because they had seen me since I was really little, but the whole training process was very comfortable. Peace of mind should I say?

Even if a skater has abundance of talent, without a supervisor it’s hard for her to grow. Because Mr.Ryu and Mrs. Shin could point out my errors, I could rely on them on my way to Sochi. Some people wonder whether I need a coach when I had already won gold at Vancouver, but skating changes everyday with you daily condition, so you need someone to look after you technically and mentally. Now that I ended my career with those coaches from childhood, it really does make me sentimental a bit.”

With a bit of exaggeration, the troubles that arose in Yuna’s career and Yuna’s efforts to overcome them could be compared to “optimistic asphalt covering all the breaks and fissures on the road.” Yuna has said that “Secret” was one of the memorable books that she had read and the book pretty much conveys the same message.

Though many call Yuna “Daeinbae”[Dane-Bæ], there are also anecdotes where people say “I saw Yuna at an autographing event, but she looked disinterested” or “she refused to sign an autograph for me.” The question that the reporter received most frequently was also “How’s Yuna’s character?” I asked her how she felt about such questions and thoughts.

“When I don’t have a certain facial expression, I guess I look sort of disinterested or angry even… Maybe it’s because I don’t have double eyelids, I don’t know. When I don’t really have any expression, I get asked if I’m angry or sullen. But I’m really not….

Yeah I mean I heard so many gossip rumors. Once I heard that a flight attendant saw me fighting and cussing with my mom. It was ridiculous; once I’m on a plane I don’t even talk that much. I just think there are people who do such things on purpose.”

The reporter experienced first handed such rumors going around as if they were true. When Yuna was training in Toronto, rumor spread that she was dating Jang Geun Suk (Korean actor). It simply wasn’t true.

“Lee Sang Hwa (Korean speed skater, whose boyfriend is also a hockey player) didn’t introduce me to my boyfriend”

-There are also some negative comments regarding commercial appearances.
“Yeah I know, but I don’t read them these days. It doesn’t do you any good you know… I don’t really know my net income. I don’t even get allowances. I think I’ll take some more interest from now on. (laugh)”

-It was recently revealed that you were dating, and people wonder what a person like you look for in a man?

“You have to look at everything. As for rumors going around about my boyfriend, though they’re very far from the truth, you just have to accept it. But as for the rumor that Lee Sang Hwa introduced us to each other is false. Marriage? I don’t know, I never thought about whether I want to marry early or not.”

18 years as a skater and now Yuna is 25 (Korean age). Does she have any regrets? No was her immediate and definite answer.

“I mean I experienced everything I could. Results and everything. I sort of got to the bottom of it all to have any regrets. 2 olympics, regrets, sentiments yet unsolved, I don’t have any of that. Ice rink was school for me, and I had good result there. I haven’t lived too long, but it was satisfactory.”

-Many people are interested in your future plans.

“I’ve been thinking, but it’s been hard to decide. What to do, where to work, I just don’t know. It hasn’t been too long since the Olympics ended, and I’ve just been running headlong for 18 years.

I know I’m in the spotlight right now, and the decision is that much harder because of that. I just feel my choices are limited.”

As of right now, I want to help upcoming skaters. Now that they are getting some good results, I want to help them reap better ones. Figure skating is what I like the most and it’s also what I’m best at. It just doesn’t feel right to lay it all aside; I want to help young skaters. Even before this Olympics, I had so much I wanted to tell them. But since I’m not a coach, I just told them don’t be nervous and such as is usual for a senior athlete.”

At Sochi, Park So Youn, Kim Hae Jin, Kim Jin Seo competed alongside Yuna. They are all expected to be the face of Korean figure skating at Pyeonchang games in 2018. Park So Youn finished 9th in the world championship right after Sochi.

-There have been speculations of running for IOC athlete commissioner

After successful bidding for 2018 Olympics, there have been talks about future involvement with Sports diplomacy. But I think I was too young then to think about such things. Now I have all the prerequisites for running, but I don’t know yet. It’s not as if you automatically get the job just because you want it, and because the next Olympic games is summer Olympics, it may be more advantageous for a summer Olympian.

-Looking back who are you grateful to?

All the coaches and so many people who have helped. And also all the fans who cheered me on. There were many fans who would buy tickets to competitions abroad, and that’s really not an easy thing to do. I am most thankful for those fans who were always close by, but always cheering me on from a step away. Many things have happened throughout my career, and I really want to thank those fans who always believed in me and loved me for what I am.”

Yuna Kim truly looked free during the interview. It was an attitude without a single trace of regret, one that can only be taken on by a person who has tried her best through and through.

I sat down in front of her with the title “comprehensive interview” on my hands. But there are many questions I couldn’t quite ask and stories that she could not quite answer.

Though a public figure, there are much personal life and thoughts within Yuna. I couldn’t ask her to recall every single moment of the 18 years of her career and interpret them. She has shown her everything to make the public cry and smile. At 25 years old, we cannot ask her to reveal what would give her the motivation to live the rest of her life.

Translated by JT Brooks via Golden Yuna

Source: http://sports.media.daum.net/sports/general/newsview…