[BREAKING] ตลาดหุ้นไต้หวัน -8% หลังเจอโรคระบาดรอบใหม่
เมื่อไม่กี่นาทีที่ผ่านมาดัชนีตลาดหุ้นไต้หวัน TAIEX ร่วงหนัก -1417 จุดหรือราว 8.5% คิดเป็นมูลค่าทั้งตลาดที่หายไปราว 2.4 ล้านล้านบาทภายในวันเดียว
ซึ่งถ้าหุ้นไทยลงหนักขนาดนี้ก็จะเทียบเท่ากับ Set Index ลดลง 134 จุดเลยทีเดียว..
โดยนับตั้งแต่วันจันทร์ที่ผ่านมาตลาดหุ้นไต้หวันปรับตัวลดลงแรงเนื่องจากพบการระบาดของโควิด
ที่มีส่วนเกี่ยวข้องกับนักบินสายการบิน China Airlines ราว 35 คน (ณ วันที่ 10 พ.ค.) ทำให้เกิดความกังวลในเที่ยวบินส่งออกสินค้าไปต่างประเทศ
แต่นอกจากเกิดการระบาดในกลุ่มนักบินแล้ว
เมื่อวานนี้ ได้มีรายงานเพิ่มเติมว่าเกิดการระบาดเพิ่มเติมในไต้หวัน
ซึ่งไม่เกี่ยวข้องกับกลุ่มนักบินแต่อย่างใด
จนทำให้ทางรัฐบาลต้องออกมาตรการที่มีความเข้มข้นมากขึ้น
ส่งผลให้ธุรกิจในตลาดหุ้นไต้หวันหลายตัว
ทั้งที่เป็นส่วนประกอบสินค้าอิเล็กทรอนิกส์โดยเน้นการส่งออกนอกประเทศเป็นหลัก
รวมถึงอีกหลายธุรกิจในประเทศ ได้รับแรงกดดันพร้อม ๆ กันจนถูกเทขายออกมามหาศาล
สำหรับความเคลื่อนไหวของบริษัทที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในไต้หวัน วันนี้
Cathay Financial -9%
Yuanta Financial -7%
Hon Hai Precision Industry -7%
Delta Electronics -6%
TSMC -5%
Foxconn -5%
ปิดท้ายด้วยข้อมูลที่น่าสนใจ
วันนี้ Delta ประเทศไทย ที่เป็นบริษัทลูกของ Delta Electronics +5%..
References
-https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/more-pain-predicted-for-taiwan-stock-market-2021-05-11
-https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4200582
-https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-quarantine-all-pilots-largest-airline-amid-covid-19-outbreak-2021-05-10/
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0306紐約時報
*【“幾乎沒有前例,航空公司受冠狀病毒重創】
美國股市航空類股週四大幅下跌,投資者認為,取消航班情況下,銷售損失和未來幾個月服務的大幅減少是可能的。包括聯合航空,捷藍航空和漢莎航空在內的幾家航空公司在最近幾天宣布關閉新航線。國際航空運輸協會預估,本年度全球航空公司收入將大幅縮水至1130億美元。https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/business/coronavirus-airline-industry.html
*【由新冠病毒恐懼影響,美國股市再次暴跌】
週四股市再度震盪,標準普爾500指數下跌超過3%。在過去的兩周中,該指數在六個交易日上上下下,這是在過去的一年來沒有發生過的情形。航空,工業,金融和能源股大幅下跌。由於對長期增長的擔憂,十年期美國國庫券的收益率創至新低。星巴克警告稱,在中國的季度銷售額將比去年下降50%,這將使其收入預期下降4億至4.3億美元。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/business/stock-market-covid-19.html
*【如何停止觸摸你的臉】
我們知道這很難。試試這四個技巧,以幫助限制每天觸摸臉部的次數,以幫助防止冠狀病毒傳播。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/stop-touching-your-face-coronavirus.html
*【新冠病毒實時更新】
*美國海岸警衛隊將測試工具包送往加洲沿海隔離的一艘遊輪。加州加入了宣布緊急狀態的州名單。到目前為止,與該病毒有關的死亡有14例,全國有200例確診病例。紐澤西州,馬里蘭州和田納西州的病例報告使感染病人的州數目增加到19個。華盛頓州週四報告了數十個新病例, 紐約州又增加了11個。舊金山報告了前兩個病例,休斯頓則是第一例。
*紐約的案件增加了一倍。數千人處於隔離狀態。
*沙烏地阿拉伯對伊朗表達強烈不滿,指責伊朗當局肆意將新冠病毒傳播到阿拉伯和其他國家。
*國會批准83億美元緊急援助款,目前該提案只待川普總統簽字批准。與此同時,兩個疫情最為嚴重地區(加州和華盛頓州)的護士警告,他們缺乏必要的防護裝備與相關培訓。醫護人員是最容易被感染病毒的人群,目前在美國的醫療機構中,已有至少八人被確診。
*歐洲官員警告說,隨著歐洲大陸的感染人數急劇上升,從週三的不到4,000人躍升至5,000多人,至少有160人死亡,歐洲的流行病可能在遏制之前會變得更加惡化。
*民主黨說,移民執法與病毒遏制相衝突
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html
*【“我們什麼時候可以上學?” 將近3億兒童無法上課受影響】
義大利所有學校的全面關閉,印度首都的課程停課和美國學校停課的警告,新冠病毒的威脅已深入到世界各地的日常生活中,全球2.9億多的學生受影響。聯合國警告“當前教育中斷的全球規模和速度是空前的。”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-schools-closed.html
*【數千人被困在郵輪,等待新冠病毒測試結果】
至尊公主號”郵輪乘客等待檢測結果:在官員們獲知本周於加州死亡的一名患者上個月曾乘坐該郵輪、且船上已有21人表現出相關症狀後,這艘從夏威夷返回加州的郵輪被要求暫時不得靠岸。目前,當局已將檢測盒運送到船上,官員稱檢測結果將於週五公佈。船上目前共有約60名乘客,這艘郵輪與此前停靠在橫濱的“鑽石公主號”郵輪同屬一家公司。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/cruise-ship-california.html
*【法官稱巴爾對穆勒報告的處理”失真”和”誤導” 】
聯邦法官認為,巴爾針對特別檢察官穆勒提出的報告處理不當,並提出了嚴厲的批評,他稱巴爾對調查結果提出“扭曲”和“誤導”的解釋。在該主題上缺乏可信度。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/politics/mueller-report-barr-judge-walton.html
*【華倫宣佈退出總統競選】
麻州參議員華倫曾用大膽的政見企圖重塑美國社會,削減富豪階級的權力和財富,她認為,這是從根本上破壞經濟和政治秩序。去年秋天,她一度聲勢看漲,如今卻在週四宣布退出總統大選。她的離職是民主的表態,現在基本上只剩下前副總統約拜登和參議員桑德斯之爭,至於華倫會支持哪一方?她說:“我需要一些空間。”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-drops-out.html
*【疫中訪問中國,WHO專家組組長看到了什麼?】
新冠病毒的致死率究竟是多少?中國如何組織起醫療回應?武漢人的生活狀況如何?中國的病例真的減少了嗎?作為世界衛生組織專家組中國之行的組長,布魯斯•艾爾沃德博士實地見證了中國是如何迅速遏制這一場吞沒武漢、威脅全國的新冠病毒暴發,並認為,中國的抗疫方式可以被複製,但需要速度、資金和政治勇氣。
https://cn.nytimes.com/health/20200305/coronavirus-china-aylward/
*【觀點 | 疫情大考:習近平的生死戰?】
面對新冠病毒疫情,既然習近平自稱“親自指揮親自部署”,那他是否應對武漢失守、病毒全國暴發負最大責任?時政評論家鄧聿文認為,關於誰該被追責的問題,答案只能從現行體制中找:因為正是習近平的改造,才導致這個體制無力有效應付諸如此類突發的公共衛生事件。而很大程度上,去年12月發生的這場疫情可以看作是對習近平政權、特別是他個人政治生命的一次大考。
https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20200305/xijinping-coronavirus-china/
china airline stock 在 Mohd Asri Facebook 的最讚貼文
[WHERE TO PUT YOUR MONEY AFTER MALAYSIA AIRLINES MH370 DISASTER : ONCE IN LIFETIME OPPORTUNITIES BY DR NAZRI KHAN]
I say it again. Malaysia Airlines (BURSA : 3786) is a super excellent buy for long term investors. A perfect buy for three year holding period. Note that MAS is now trading at super cheap Price Book of 0.8 and exactly one fifth of its original par value of RM1.00. Its financials now stand with Debt RM11bil, Cash RM4bil and 2013 losses RM1.2bil.
My personal view, regardless of all MH370 Grand Theory (mostly illogical) being bandied around from (1) poor weather (2) pilot error (3) engine failure (4) Xinjiang Separatist aka Chinese 9/11 (5) pilot commit suicide (6) Asian Bermuda Triangle (7) Airasia Ops Telanjang Attacks (8) Anwar Ibrahim Court Diversion, MAS will definitely suffer loss of confidence in the short term which open up a huge buying opportunities for long term investors.
As we know MAS is facing its most severe turbulences that threatens its very survival. Hence, I personally speculate two things may happen to MAS now. Privatisation or Bankruptcy Protection.
While I believe the latter is extremely & highly unlikely (given MAS strong intangible asset), both scenario may reinvent stronger MAS over three years time frame. If there is any case, Japanese Airlines is a good example which rose miraculously from 5 Japanese cents (a day before delisted from Tokyo Stock Exchange in January 2010) to as high as Japanese Yen 3,790 immediately on relisting day in September 2012 (an absolute gain of 75,800% after three years of painful restructuring ie. cutting a third of its workforce, cancelling unprofitable routes and replacing older planes).
Three major reasons why I believe MAS is a fail-proof-long-term-investment (1) Government will not let MAS go under due to its massive strategic role to Malaysian economy (2) MAS has lasting intangible asset namely Best Airline Brand, Best Cabin Crew & Safest Airline Track Record (3) MAS has numerous business sharks ready to pounce on cheap privatisation.
The Most Likely Scenario : Privatisation, White Knight & New Leadership :
With MAS price now standing at dirt cheap of RM0.23, privatisation attempt may be highly viable as the total acquisition cost is a cheap RM4bil (MAS Total Market Cap as at Monday 10th March is RM4.1bil, the lowest in its 50 years business history). Judging from the highest volume transaction spotted yesterday, I expect more bidding sharks to quietly accumulate for control after the last Airasia-led privatisation attempt was aborted in May 2012. Exactly what we see yesterday, MAS fell the most since June 2013 (11% plunge) but made a strong turnaround to 24 sen with volume at 39.96 million shares, the highest single day transaction ever in one year. If this scenario materializes, expect MAS share price to range bound (say RM0.15 to RM0.30) with mysteriously active trade sparked by insider accumulation.
The Unlikely Worst Case Scenario : Bankruptcy Protection
Should operation continue to bleed, MAS may have no choice but to trigger a drastic bankruptcy protocols to break out from the financial doldrums and close it under creditor protection. This is highly unlikely but is still MAS last option to deal with its legacy hurdles namely the demanding union politics, overstaffing and lopsided procurement contracts (from engineering, maintenance to catering). Filing for bankruptcy under Section 176 of the Malaysian Companies Act will give MAS a fresh start and emergency room to resuscitate its operation and do what is necessary to face the cut throat competition (which include selling business units and shed staff as Japanese Airlines did). This scenario however is remote in probabilities given that MAS has strong intangible assets and MAS shareholder, national asset manager Khazanah Nasional has consistently ruled out winding down the airline. If this scenario materialize, expect a Flash Crash on MAS share price with RM0.10 as the most likely downside target for aggressive buy.
As for strategy, expect the following stocks to be the biggest losers from MH370 disaster :
(1) Airport Operator : Malaysia Airports (Bursa : 5014) : SELL
If security concerns are to be blamed, we should expect Malaysia Airports to impose more measures at higher cost. Don’t forget the repercussion may also create flight delay & cancellation, adding to the bottom line of Malaysia Airports.
(2) Tourism Player : Genting Malaysia & Shangrila (Bursa : 4715 & 5517) : SELL
Tourism may plummet in the short term, causing marginal loss with Genting as the most vulnerable targets. Following this, we should expect hotel occupancy to fall as well due to psychological distress and shorter tourist tenure immediately after the event.
(3) MAS Partner : China Southern Airlines (HKEX : 1055) : SELL
MAS operational code-share partner will get the immediate negative impacts from the repercussion as reflected by China Southern Airlines which fell 3.85% on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
(4) Insurance : Willis Group Holding (NYSE : WSH) : SELL
Willis was the broker for Malaysia Airlines liability insurance cover. The size of the potential claims for workers/clients compensation following the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner can be in the tens to hundreds of millions depending on the results of the investigation.
The following companies may set to be the biggest winners :
(1) MAS Competitor : Airasia (Bursa : 5099) : STRONG BUY
The missing of MH370 will trigger short term loss of confidence for MAS and results in last minute cancellation of booking with competitors such as Airasia and Malindo to stand the most from the disaster. This is especially true given AirAsia recent foray into the medium-range (five and eight hours flight) to further steal booking of Malaysia Airlines specifically with flights to Japan and Australia.
(2) MAS Supplier : Brahim (Bursa : 9474) : STRONG BUY
Regardless of MAS direction, Brahim stand to win as the contract has been fixed and MAS must pay RM250 mil a year until contract ends in year 2028.
(3) Technology Communication Software & Security Hardware : Willow, Vitrox, iTronic and KESM (Bursa : 0008, 0097, 9393 & 9334) : BUY
The incident may force substantial resources to be put towards improving security, in the areas of communication technology be it hardware or software.
In conclusion, Buy MAS for three year time frame. Buy Airasia & Buy Brahim for one year time frame. Sell MAS for one month time frame
Good luck and all hearts to the victims of MH370.
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