#Opinion by Li Ruofan 李若凡|"As for risk assets, although rising US Treasury yields may cause volatility, especially for technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates, I do not see that as a sign of a bear market. Rather, it suggests a risk-on mood may prevail in the market. For one thing, the Fed and other central banks may maintain a loose policy, thus creating a low interest rate environment. Besides, the traditional economy may benefit from gradual economic recovery and the easing of lockdown measures. Third, although the real rate of return of 10-year US Treasuries has increased, the rate remains negative, meaning the rate of return of risk assets is still attractive."
Read more: https://bit.ly/3chSBbN
"至於風險資產,儘管美債收益率上升可能引起波動,尤其是對利率敏感的科技股,惟筆者認為這並非熊市的先兆。反而,市場的情緒仍可能偏向risk-on。首先,美聯儲和其他主要央行短期內可能維持寬鬆政策不變,為投資者繼續營造一個低息環境。其次,隨經濟復蘇及封鎖措施解除,舊經濟板塊可能受惠。第三,美國10年期實際收益率雖有所上升,但仍處於負值,意味風險資產的收益率仍然吸引。"
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同時也有2部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過3萬的網紅Eric's English Lounge,也在其Youtube影片中提到,同學期待的政治英文影片第一集總算出爐了! 在此先聲明,我跟Howard老師純粹是分析英文,兩位總統都是神人級的第二語言使用者! 此影片的目的不在於比較兩者的英文能力,而是提供學習者英文口語的實際操作和可以注意的小細節。 以下是影片中提到的一些資訊,請看完再發表評論: 馬英九(1950年7月13日...
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policy meaning 在 元毓 Facebook 的最讚貼文
【近日股市資金行情之我見】
這兩個月忙著跨海搬家,沒太多時間寫長文。這篇文章從今年1月斷斷續續寫到現在,主要嘗試回答兩個問題:
1. 2021年初是否存在市場過熱現象?
2. 美國政府2020年的瘋狂印鈔行為(參見下圖)是否會引發嚴重通貨膨脹?投資人應該如何因應?

首先關於第一個問題,在今年2月份我們看到美國股市的option契約數量大增,從19M/每日增加至30M/每日;SPACs形式2020年增加200件,募資$74B;GME軋空炒作行情。
這樣是否存在擦鞋童現象?
這部分我想先回顧17世紀荷蘭鬱金香投機事件。
傳說當年荷蘭鬱金香莖球被瘋狂炒作,價格上漲幾百倍,荷蘭舉國人民紛紛陷入投機熱潮,甚至20世紀德國知名投資客柯斯多蘭尼稱當年有駝背侏儒光是出租其後背供投資客們寫上最金莖球價格,然後穿梭人群中賺了一小筆。
隨後鬱金香莖球炒作泡沫破裂,荷蘭國家經濟受到重創,進而影響當年曾是海上商業王國的地位。
然而史實是如此嗎?
美國經濟學家Peter Garber專門研究此一投機炒作的經濟史,並寫下幾篇著名論文。而依據其著作"Famous First Bubbles The Fundamentals of Early Manias" 一書,我整理幾個重點:
1. 實際上鬱金香熱潮時間相當短,價格明顯彈升發生在1636年11月~1637年1月份。
2. 參與人數總共約350人,全是職業商人;真正支付高價(超過300荷蘭盾)者約莫10人,多數人其實是透過遠期合約的方式進行炒作,而最後多以違約拒絕真實支付現金,直到荷蘭當地鬱金香相關商會與政府出面介入,才以履約價格的10%甚至5%方式解除合約。
3. 非常昂貴的品種,如Semper Augustus 的真實漲幅只有5倍(從原本的1千出頭荷蘭盾漲至5千多),並非都市傳說中幾百倍的漲幅。
漲幅較大的主要是那些本來就平價的品種,例如Gouda buds,起漲價格約2荷蘭盾,最高價50多荷蘭頓。即便存在瘋漲,但至多也是一、二十倍,這即便放在現代農產品供需失調時的價格軌跡來比較,也並不離奇。例如台灣颱風後的香菜價格漲幅。
這邊可以題外話說明為何Semper Augustus這品種售價昂貴。因為這特殊品種本不存在於大自然,而是農夫必須將快開花的鬱金香球莖人工嫁接罹患某種病毒的鬱金香,才能開出特殊花色。而這種嫁接病毒的球莖將會死亡,不再具備繁衍後代的能力。此外,嫁接後的成功率在當年也並不高,不保證存活也不保證開出特殊花色。
物以稀為貴下使得Semper Augustus這品種本來售價就高昂,是一般品種的百倍。
讀者可參見以下幾張當年不同品種的價格走勢圖:

4. 也因為這個事件的範圍與熱潮都比傳說中小得多,因此並未對實質荷蘭資本市場或經濟體造成多少負面影響。
荷蘭鬱金香泡沫事件有三點啟示:
a. 即便在當年差不多時期的著作、媒體都有對其瘋狂投機炒作的描述,但實證來看誇大成分居多。很可能受到作家喜歡站在道德高點批判投機行為的習慣影響,但做為投資人或經濟史研究者在考據曾經的泡沫事件,始終必須以事實為依歸。
b. 小範圍小規模的投機炒作,無論價格哄抬得多麼高聳入天,事實是「毀約」始終是一種選項,有行無市的價格不存在經濟學意義。
c. 同樣地,小範圍小規模的投機炒作,無論價格哄抬得多麼高聳入天,對整體經濟乃至於資本市場的影響同樣不會太大。這意味著我們雖然應該警醒擦鞋童現象,但也無需杯弓蛇影。
如同我在去年幾篇文章中談到的,我認為Covid-19疫情本身造成的經濟損害遠不如人為的隔離措施所造成。目前看到的全世界生產力衰退,人禍成分高過天災。但與2009年不同之處在於:
「Personal savings soared as high as 33.7% in April following the Cares Act and were still a healthy 13.7% in December before Congress passed another $900 billion in Covid aid. This means that, unlike during the 2009 recession, households aren’t weighed down by debt.
Personal bankruptcies, home foreclosures and loan delinquencies last fall were the lowest since at least 2003. The mortgage delinquency rate was 0.7% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to 7% in the first quarter of 2009. ...」
出自Wrong Stimulus, Wrong Time - WSJ ( Feb. 5, 2021)報導。
因此在我看來,此文撰寫的時間點,雖然多多少少某些類股上存在擦鞋童現象,投資人不必過度擔憂。投資人真正該做好未雨綢繆準備的,是美國瘋狂印鈔下必然到來的嚴重通貨膨脹。
問題二:通貨膨脹下股票標的如何選擇?
高資產或高負債的公司在嚴重通膨時期的股價表現優於高現金部位的公司。在經濟學大師Armen A. Alchian 1965年的論文 "Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices "中,特別指出傳統經濟學如凱因斯、費雪等著名學者之見認為銀行身為典型債務人,在通貨膨脹環境下應該有較好的股價表現。而Alchian則點出這些學者大老忽略銀行雖然集債務於一身(大眾存款之於銀行就是債務),然而銀行受限於法規與現實,其資產多是「現金資產(money-type assets)」,故在嚴重通貨膨脹影響下,銀行實際經濟損失大過通膨泡沫所得,股價表現當然好不到哪去。
Alchian此文對我的啟發甚大,揭櫫面對貨幣因素影響甚大時的投資方向。
但我們要知道Armen Alchian的論文寫作時期與如今的投資環境又有幾個重大侷限條件之不同,因此我們不能生吞活剝地硬套Alchian的觀點,而是必須真實理解背後隱含的正確經濟學邏輯,並依據當今侷限條件之不同而修改並應用。
引入費雪的利息理論與張五常的財富倉庫概念,現今世界何謂資產、何謂債權債務、何謂現金?我們必須要能超脫會計學、法學的思維侷限,而從真正在投資決策上有效益的經濟學角度切入。
一個我認為值得投資人注意的重點是:投資人對於高商譽(goodwill)的公司能否有正確地、在經濟學層面的深度理解與評價機制。
這點同樣也適用在面對新科技寵兒如電動車之流之正確價格評估。
以長期投資角度看,如果以夠低的成本入手高資產或高品牌價值公司,本身部位又很大,則隨後的股市大幅修正甚至崩盤基本可以無視
如果部位不大,則可以視隨後散戶瘋狂狀況逐漸增加現金部位。
回到現實面,我認為通膨現象確實在發生,有兩個現象值得注意:
a. 機構法人買入加密貨幣的金流增加
「...JPMorgan, said the size of the bitcoin market had grown to equal about a fifth of gold held for investment and trading purposes, with a market capitalisation for the cryptocurrency of $750bn at its peak earlier this year, meaning it “is far from a niche asset class”. 」
「...Analysts at Canadian insurance company Manulife said in late January that the expansion in central banks’ balance sheets and rising public debt would push investors further into alternative asset classes ...」
「...Xangle showing that investors have lost more than $16bn to fraud since 2012 ...」
b. 近日美國美國前25大銀行對私人之貸款佔總資產比例從去年54.1%下降之45.7%,且放在Fed reserve account總金額達$3.15兆美元。
(The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. .. reserve balances in their Federal Reserve depository accounts at sky-high levels, $3.15 trillion at present
)
通膨現象將會更嚴重,因為「...According to a recent House Budget Committee estimate, $1 trillion from last year’s bills hasn’t been spent—including $59 billion for schools, $239 billion for health care and $452 billion in small business loans. State and local governments added 67,000 jobs in January. They don’t need more federal cash. ...」
WSJ "wrong-stimulus-wrong-time " Feb. 5, 2021
如同我在「論比特幣」一文中闡述過:比特幣顯然不是被當作交易貨幣而是某種無根財富倉庫,因此其價格之暴漲暴跌均同時具備「合理與不合理」之雙面性。因為不存在適當的評價方式去推估其價格之合理性。
但在此文我想進一步指出,從另一層面來看,這種無根倉庫的價格變動本身卻可提供我們對於貨幣因素下真實通貨膨脹的現狀診斷。這好比我們切脈在左關中層把得一數滑脈,搭配右關心位或肝位的脈相,或胃經、肝經或經外奇穴的壓痛診斷,或舌診眼診等等訊息,我們可以推知患者是肝臟、胰臟有惡性腫瘤亦或慢性胃潰瘍。
比特幣的暴漲本身也是一個類似性質的市場訊號。
換言之,當我們把貨幣看做經濟體的血液/體液時,投資人懂不懂得把經濟的脈?是否可以從貨幣的脈相得知經濟血液/體液的品質、健康度、病理變異方向程度與進程...等等。當我們脈診上發現血液/體液堆積於某經絡時,我們看到某類型資產價格飛漲甚至軋空時,診斷者有沒有能力正確推測隨後的、不同時間點地病程發展與相對應的症狀發作?
中美貿易戰框架與因應Covid-19疫情的政府舉措則是結構性地在解剖學層面改變經濟體本身,所需要的制度經濟學知識又是否足夠投資人能趨吉避凶甚或從中獲利?
這些都是參與投資市場者必須時時捫心自問的問題。
我文末再強調一次:美國主要銀行減少對私人企業放款而增加手中政府債券這現象。
參考:
Financial Times "Bitcoin boom backstopped by central banks’ easy-money policies" 2021/2/4
Financial Times "US mortgage executives forecast a $3tn year in 2021 " 2021/01/08
WSJ "For One GameStop Trader, the Wild Ride Was Almost as Good as the Enormous Payoff " 2021/02/03
Armen A. Alchian, "Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices" (1965)
Peter M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles The Fundamentals of Early Manias (2000)
WSJ, "Fed Policy Is Smothering Private Lending" (2021/03/08)
文章連結:
https://ppt.cc/f7YCNx
policy meaning 在 Apple Daily - English Edition Facebook 的最佳解答
#Opinion by Davyd Wong|"Equally alarming, is that in the long run, low trust leaves the Government with fewer choices in how to execute any type of policy, meaning it will have to turn increasingly to punishment, intimidation, or coercion, which in turn further reinforces suspicion and distrust of government"
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policy meaning 在 Eric's English Lounge Youtube 的最佳貼文
同學期待的政治英文影片第一集總算出爐了! 在此先聲明,我跟Howard老師純粹是分析英文,兩位總統都是神人級的第二語言使用者! 此影片的目的不在於比較兩者的英文能力,而是提供學習者英文口語的實際操作和可以注意的小細節。 以下是影片中提到的一些資訊,請看完再發表評論:
馬英九(1950年7月13日-),中華民國政治人物,曾任中華民國第12、13任總統、國民黨主席等職。畢業於國立台灣大學法律學系,其後前往美國深造,獲紐約大學法學碩士學位,哈佛大學司法學博士學位。曾經擔任蔣經國總統的英文翻譯。
影片: https://youtu.be/lRACKQkgFqc?t=32
Former President of Taiwan Ma Ying-jeou, in conversation with Jerome A. Cohen, discusses student exchanges between Germany and France.
●沒有看稿子
●非常有經驗的講者
●發音大致上標準 (Prussia 普魯士, herald, tribune, presidency)
●good use of stress (enhancements)
●流暢度有練過特別停頓來思考
●提連貫性跟內容組織的部分
●會以故事的方式去切入重點
用的評分系統: https://www.ielts.org/-/media/pdfs/sp...
●wide range and skillful use of vocabulary: are aware of, feel uneasy, visionary leaders, engage in a massive student exchange, worked miracles, became cornerstones
●mistakes: skip school, quit school, tense--become cornerstone
●short, concise sentences suited for clear public speaking
●lexically dense sentences
★★★★★★★★★★★★
蔡英文(1956年8月31日-)是中華民國(臺灣)的政治人物、法律學者、律師,為現任中華民國總統,原擔任民主進步黨主席。她先後獲得國立臺灣大學法律學系法學士、康奈爾法學院法學碩士、及倫敦政治經濟學院法學博士,曾任教於國立政治大學法學院和東吳大學法學院。
影片: https://youtu.be/5ygpAnK02uk?t=55
President Tsai Ing-wen in Harvard giving advice to students on policy challenges, choices, and leadership in the next decade
●沒有看稿子
●英式發音* (taught, good), 非常清楚
*其實很多英國人不喜歡英式口音這個標籤,英國人覺得他們自己講的才是真正標準的英文,是美國人才有口音
而且現在的英國(聯合王國)也是四個國家組成的,每個區域的發音都有一些區別。
用的評分系統: https://www.ielts.org/-/media/pdfs/sp...
●用詞豐富: rebellious, challenge your teachers and contemporaries, make yourself suited for changes, sharing values, expediting
●流暢度, 有些停頓, 但是思考內容的停頓絕對是自然的!
●文法沒有任何的錯誤 (a rebellious one, meaning...分詞構句, everything that is taught 形容詞子句, what is true today...名詞子句)
★★★★★★★★★★★★
對我而言,英文是一種工具,不覺得每一個政治人物都需要英文,有專業和可靠的翻譯輔助,就足夠了。
媒體報導: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1G4
在此提供我的「心智圖詞彙攻略」課程: https://bit.ly/2teELDq
也獻上Howard老師會走路的翻譯機,《會走路的翻譯機,神級英文學習攻略本》 http://bit.ly/2DfGrhH
最後要感謝炙瞳夢 RED FILM幾位大導演的友情協助,幫我們拍出一級棒的影片!
★★★★★★★★★★★★
NOTE: Thank you for the comments, everyone, both the positive and negative ones. We'll continue to do our best to produce entertaining yet educational videos.
There is a lot of information that we could not fit in a 10 min video, and some parts could be more clearly presented. For example, pauses are entirely natural when one searches for content. This point was stated in the video but went unnoticed by many commenters. Some have also expressed concerns about the clips selected. We selected them based on the following criteria: be related to education, have "spontaneous" interaction, and be in the public domain. Not many clips on the net meet these criteria, and the two above were the only ones we had access to. Last, some comments (from both sides) have accused us of bias. We tried to be as impartial as possible, and if you require more information on our thoughts, please refer to our notes in the video description. As previously stated, both candidates are advanced second language users, and it is not our aim to compare or criticize them. Again, thank you all for your feedback. We will strive to do better in the future.
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policy meaning 在 serpentza Youtube 的最佳解答
The political environment is complicated by the potential for military conflict should Taiwan make overt actions toward de jure independence; it is the official PRC policy to use force to ensure reunification if peaceful reunification is no longer possible, as stated in its anti-secession law, and for this reason there are substantial military installations on the Fujian coast. However, in recent years, the PRC has moved towards promoting peaceful relations, including stronger economic ties, with the current ROC government aimed at unification through the one country, two systems formula or maintaining the status quo under the 1992 Consensus.
On 29 April 2005, Kuomintang Chairman Lien Chan travelled to Beijing and met with Communist Party of China (CPC) Secretary-General Hu Jintao, the first meeting between the leaders of the two parties since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. On 11 February 2014, Mainland Affairs Council Head Wang Yu-chi travelled to Nanjing and met with Taiwan Affairs Office Head Zhang Zhijun, the first meeting between high-ranking officials from either side. Zhang paid a reciprocal visit to Taiwan and met Wang on 25 June 2014, making Zhang the first minister-level PRC official to ever visit Taiwan. On 7 November 2015, Ma Ying-jeou (in his capacity as Leader of Taiwan) and Xi Jinping (in his capacity as Leader of Mainland China) travelled to Singapore and met up, marking the highest-level exchange between the two sides since 1949.
The PRC supports a version of the One-China policy, which states that Taiwan and mainland China are both part of China, and that the PRC is the only legitimate government of China. It uses this policy to prevent the international recognition of the ROC as an independent sovereign state, meaning that Taiwan participates in international forums under the name "Chinese Taipei". With the emergence of the Taiwanese independence movement, the name "Taiwan" has been employed increasingly often on the island.
What is the difference between Mainland China and Taiwan? Come find out and make a choice as to where you'd like to travel or live...
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Music used: VHS Dreams - Ocean Heights
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