#Opinion by Li Ruofan 李若凡|"As for risk assets, although rising US Treasury yields may cause volatility, especially for technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates, I do not see that as a sign of a bear market. Rather, it suggests a risk-on mood may prevail in the market. For one thing, the Fed and other central banks may maintain a loose policy, thus creating a low interest rate environment. Besides, the traditional economy may benefit from gradual economic recovery and the easing of lockdown measures. Third, although the real rate of return of 10-year US Treasuries has increased, the rate remains negative, meaning the rate of return of risk assets is still attractive."
Read more: https://bit.ly/3chSBbN
"至於風險資產,儘管美債收益率上升可能引起波動,尤其是對利率敏感的科技股,惟筆者認為這並非熊市的先兆。反而,市場的情緒仍可能偏向risk-on。首先,美聯儲和其他主要央行短期內可能維持寬鬆政策不變,為投資者繼續營造一個低息環境。其次,隨經濟復蘇及封鎖措施解除,舊經濟板塊可能受惠。第三,美國10年期實際收益率雖有所上升,但仍處於負值,意味風險資產的收益率仍然吸引。"
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同時也有10000部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,910的網紅コバにゃんチャンネル,也在其Youtube影片中提到,...
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fomc interest rate 在 不負責任金融研究中心 Facebook 的精選貼文
09/05/2017:不負責任感想
文:梧杞杬
最近呢幾個月忙緊搞啲新嘢(finance but not speculation-related),所以除咗平時月底嘅放鬆之旅之外,有時候都要去見吓人同埋應酬吓,nowadays I'm really living up to the name--「不負責任」,喺香港嘅時間越嚟越少(都唔可以成日靠賴叔啦)。所以如果其他有料之人想搵個竇寫嘢嘅話,不妨可以考慮吓呢度。
唉,老實講,香港呢個地方真係越嚟越唔適合人住,可以嘅話真係想搬去上海或者台北住囉,但係老實講,講機會中港台嘅話始終係香港最多而且相對嚟講最容易嘅......
Anyway,呢篇都係諗住hea寫,不喜勿插啦屌。
其實最近都同唔少嘅朋友行家私底下討論過,2017年開始到而家,亞洲升得最撚勁嘅其中兩隻貨幣竟然係韓圜同台幣(在下個個月去台北所以特別feel到),所以好自然咁就梗係會睇吓呢兩個market啦。台灣央行嘅monetary policy基本上係跟南韓嘅(咁係direct competitor嘛,跟機好撚正常),所以如果齋講股票嘅話,其實台灣股市入面都不乏dividend同growth play(南韓growth play多,dividend play少啲)--又可以收息兼又可以賺匯水,所以其實台灣股市今年年初開始都破嗮頂(話嗮都打橫行咗好撚柒多年)。咩股票係dividend play咩係growth play在下就唔講啦,大家只要做吓功課就好容易搵到出嚟。不過大家要記得嘅係台灣同南韓都有收股息稅。
講吓大六。前一兩年唔知係因為dumb money多得滯定點啦,當時只要你有tech-related嘅project嘅話(尤其係Fintech),要攞funding簡直容易過去香檳大廈搵蝦條。咁而家香檳大廈都摺咗啦,而同時間大六嘅tech project亦都唔已經唔係好似以前咁咁容易搵到funding。在下最近發現嘅係,Fintech類嘅project其實仲有好多,不過係唔係quality就見人見智。其實如果有朋友幫過腦細執數搞IPO都應該會發現,特別係呢一兩年又大六嘔出嚟嘅好project數量越嚟越少,但係爭生意嘅人越嚟越多,咁咪即係個市而家得返一大堆爛橙(老實講好嘅project都唔論到普通街外人有得玩),但係爭爛橙嘅人就與日俱增。淋病選特首之前竟然仲有人放風話7月1號之後SFC阿頭要換人,在下心諗如果真係咁嘅話,香港財金界呢三五年最引以為傲嘅「啤殼」業真係成行摺鳩埋都唔掂。
又咁講啦,啤細殼股嘅莊家其實一直以嚟都有,就等於你永遠都會聽到身邊總有人炒細價股發咗達一樣。呢啲嘢有demand就自然有supply(都唔撚洗在下講個demand來自邊度囉可),只要一日仲有demand就會有supply(以後仲可能會再貴啲添)。而喺呢個有兵亦有賊嘅世界入面,當賊玩得太過份嘅時候,兵就會做嘢;話說當年因為某隻8字頭炒得太癲上嗮報紙而激發到SFC收緊GEM仔條例,所以之前有線單嘢出咗街之後在下其實有理由相信收緊主版啲例其實只係時間問題。喺可見嘅未來,相信啲股仔會越嚟越難玩,而且刁structure應該會越嚟越複雜。
唔講呢啲。
法國大選總算完滿落幕,而FOMC亦都暗示咗呢一兩個月嘅data只係幻覺嚟架啫,imply緊六月應該會再加多次息。香港跟唔跟機在下講咗N咁多次亦唔想再多講(每隔幾個月就攞返呢啲嘢出嚟翻炒,你唔悶在下都覺得悶撚死),反而在下想講嘅係--其實當呢個加息週期再維持過多一年嘅時候,美元其實好難唔強勢。咁當然啦,interest rate differential呢樣嘢係相對嘅,唔想美元強勢而其他貨幣轉弱,咁咪大家一齊加息囉(咁有無條件加就係另外一個問題啦)。
而且,FOMC而家嘅討論點已經唔係if或when或how much嘅問題,而係佢地喺未來嘅時間入面點樣去縮返自己個balance sheet。咁縮balance sheet嘅話就無可避免要減低monetary base架囉喎,即係所謂嘅收水。在下認為收唔收已經係FOMC嘅討論點,值得討論嘅係個balance sheet可以俾佢地縮到幾多。同時間大家睇吓歐洲嗰邊,雖然絕對唔可以話有recovery,但係亦已經唔再係谷底,在下推算嘅係其實ECB亦真係會有可能會部署喺未來一兩年內加息收水。而日本,最近嘅labour market situation亦見有所收緊。即係話,用年嘅時間去計嘅話,全世界最大嗰三間央行其實真係會收水的。咁呢啲經濟週期嘅嘢一定會有循環架喎,而家連人行都想諗藉口夾返高啲利息啦。尋日FT先講完話World Bank出咗份report話其實大六嘅影子銀行規模不跌反升,所以最近人行先係咁放風話要deleverage。
今日傍晚無啦啦條街係咁瘋傳大江又可能會東去,都唔撚知第幾次肛交棒,呢啲嘢在下都係奉勸大家咪諗咁多,聽吓就算,到時係真嘅先再算。不過話時話,今年係十九大,應該又勁撚多呢啲似是而非嘅政治動作。在下相信呢啲嘢唔會郁到個市嘅又,不過肯肯定嘅係花生價格肯定會大升。
最後,而家Trump捱過咗100日,而之前講嘅競選承諾亦開始續忽續忽成型(玩完Obamacare就玩tax reform),在下依然最擔心呢條友嘅地方係佢究竟會喺未來呢一兩年點樣樣玩啲trade policies,因為呢樣嘢就真係有可能郁到全世界嘅經濟(注意唔係講股市)。Economic forces係郁得好撚慢嘅,不過其實若然未到就只係時辰未到架姐,而當時辰到嘅時候,無乜嘢可以阻到佢。
而在下覺得恆指而家嘅問題係咩:就係而家H股開始連A股都唔係好跟,咁當一個市場本身已經無咩fundamentals可以睇嘅時候,究竟仲有啲咩可以用嚟做benchmark?而且大家要留意嘅係,其實港匯陰啲陰啲已經跌到7.785;同埋,無論係VHSI定係VIX都好,都已經跌到去一個十分低嘅位,即係暗示咗其實個市已經側埋咗一邊。嗱在下唔係話短其內一定會出咩事,不過可以肯定講嘅係--假如以後有咩事發生嘅時候,一定會人踩人咁解啫。
9up完。
fomc interest rate 在 通勤學英語 Facebook 的最佳解答
#每日通勤單元 016
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for interest rate policy decisions, made the decision to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points,
#每天給自己15mins
#15minstoday
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fomc interest rate 在 大象中醫 Youtube 的最佳解答
fomc interest rate 在 Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) | FRED 的相關結果
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other ... ... <看更多>
fomc interest rate 在 United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 的相關結果
Fed Interest Rate Decision ; Latest Release. Jan 26, 2022 ; Actual. 0.25% ; Forecast. 0.25% ; Previous. 0.25%. ... <看更多>
fomc interest rate 在 The Fed - Federal Open Market Committee 的相關結果
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight ... ... <看更多>