【程翔：新香港人將任特首 CHING Cheong: A "new Hongkonger" will be the next Chief Executive】Scroll down for English
🍏 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/3rMIyRB
🍎 Google Podcast: https://bit.ly/3huFKE8
🍊 Spotity: https://spoti.fi/385myJY
請點擊上述連結收聽Podcast節目 "What's up in Hong Kong" 第4集，Matthew Chapple (Lamma Matthew 南丫華哥) 和我與資深記者程翔談紫荊黨，重點包括：
1）紫荊黨的成立配合了北京以「新香港精英」取代原有建制派和AO的治港新策略
2）建制派對紫荊黨能力的質疑是出於無知，因為難以相信會被中共用完即棄
3）新香港人站穩陣腳後，中共對香港的控制會稍為放鬆，以保一國兩制的門面
4）林鄭雖被保皇KOL圍攻，但不至於不能做滿任期，因為這牽涉當年親自提拔林鄭的習近平的地位
5）林鄭不能連任，即代表「新香港人」特首在2022年就要登場：前港交所行政總裁李小加確是可能人選
綜合程翔和各方意見，我自己有以下推斷：
1）中共嘗試在香港最大程度複製中國的管治架構，首先是將議會改造為不會阻撓行政當局的「香港市人大」
2）通過政治審查和建立龐大國安系統，持續壓制反對派，原有建制派人物可留任「香港市人大」做橡皮圖章
3）短期內真正要做大手術的是行政系統，2022年的特首、問責官員和主要法定機構主席改由「新香港人」出任，推行「高質而有效的精英管治」（相對於土共培養的「廢人」和仲要跟程序的AO）
4）基層組織是否繼續由土共自由競爭，還是由紫荊黨統一收編重組，等下一階段才聽候發落
不管未來如何發展，有一點相當清晰：中共及其保皇勢力已不放香港人在眼內，正集中力量作內部鬥爭，希望在變動時勢搶佔位置。
Is the “Bauhinia Party” a CCP vehicle to establish the “One Party” system in Hong Kong? In early December a group of Hong Kong based, Pro CCP Mainland businessmen announced their intention to launch the “Bauhinia Party”. With a membership goal of 250,000, commentators speculate that the purpose of this new party may be to establish the “One Party” system in Hong Kong by absorbing the current Pro Beijing political groups and surfacing the underground CCP network here. In Episode #4 Eddie Chu and Matthew Chapple discuss this with veteran journalist CHING Cheong（程翔）.
The highlights Mr CHING's thoughts include:
1) The establishment of the new Bauhinia Party is part of Beijing's new Hong Kong strategy to replace the original Pro Establishment camp and senior government officials with “new Hong Kong elites” which means Party loyal, first generation, Mainland born Hong Kongers.
2) The establishment’s questioning of the Bauhinia Party’s ability is out of ignorance, because it is difficult for them to accept they will be discarded.
3) After the "new Hongkongers" gain a foothold, the CCP's control over Hong Kong will be slightly relaxed to preserve the appearance of "one country, two systems".
4) Although Carrie LAM is currently being attacked by the Pro Beijing side it is likely she will still serve out her full term because she was personally selected and supported for the position by XI Jing-ping.
5) Carrie LAM will likely not be re-elected, which means that the next Chief Executive will probably come from the ranks of "new Hong Kongers" (e.g. a Mainland born or first generation patriot) in 2022: Charles LI, the former Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is indeed a possible candidate.
Based on the opinions of CHING Cheong and others, my thinking is as follows:
1) The CCP is trying to replicate China's governance structure in Hong Kong to the greatest extent possible. The first is to transform our Legco into a "Hong Kong Municipal People's Congress" that will not obstruct the Administration.
2) Through political screening and the establishment of the National Security System, the opposition will continue to be suppressed, and the original establishment figures can remain in the "Hong Kong People's Congress" as a rubber stamp or "loyal opposition".
3) In the short term, the major reform will be on the administrative system. In 2022, the Chief Executive, key officials, and Chairpersons of major statutory bodies will be replaced by the "new Hong Kongers" to implement "high-quality and effective elite governance" (as opposed to the current "useless " local elites).
4) Will HK's grassroots Pro CCP organizations continue to compete freely in Hong Kong or will the Bauhinia Party consolidate and reorganize it as a united group? We will need to wait and see!
Listen to "What's up in Hong Kong?" Episode #4 with the following links:
🍏 Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/3rMIyRB
🍎 Google Podcast: https://bit.ly/3huFKE8
🍊 Spotity: https://spoti.fi/385myJY
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