小編快報
《柏林脈動》(The Berlin Pulse) 今天出刊了。這是德國一年一度的外交及國際關係專刊。作者群包括學者、智庫專家、政府官員。
這一期談歐洲問題的作者有波蘭外長、Moldova 總理、德國國防部長等等等。
今年《脈動》特別做了中國專題,作者有五位,分別是:
中國的全國人大外事委員會副主任委員傅瑩、日本眾議會議員Minora Kiuchi、巴黎的中國問題專家Francois Godement、曾任澳洲駐華大使,現任外交及貿易秘書長的Frances Adamson,以及台灣的龍應台。
德國編輯在文末放了一個德國的民意調查圖表,提問是:「面對中國,你認為德國應該更強力保護自己的政治利益,即使犧牲經濟利益?」
答案:贊成 76%
反對 19%
小編把龍應台文章翻譯成中文,跟讀者分享。英文原文附在後面。如果嫌我翻譯得不好,那那那,那表示你英文很好,你就看英文吧......
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兩千三百萬人在獨木舟上
——為什麼歐洲應該關切台灣的未來
反對黨公布2020總統候選人名單的那一天,我在台北和知識圈的朋友們午餐。那悲觀的,用問句來表達自己的悲觀,譬如,「你覺得台灣還有多少年?」那樂觀的,用黑色幽默來表達樂觀,譬如,「感謝老天。香港讓他們太忙了,沒時間管台灣。」
跟德國一樣,台灣對中國大陸和香港的貿易順差,在2018年是831億美元。百分之四十一的對外貿易針對中國,中國大陸市場對台灣的重要不言而喻。然而,隨著近年來台灣海峽兩岸的關係緊張,反對黨(國民黨) 憂慮市場的優勢無法持續,而執政黨(民進黨) 則選擇強化選民對北京的不信任來抵制中國的影響力。執政黨最近提出的國安新法可能將任何被認定為為中國宣傳者入罪。
和歐洲一樣,台灣人對中國的感受也是複雜的。 當中國代表的是活躍的經濟機會時,很多台灣人就容易所謂「親中」,當中國代表的是壓迫和可能的入侵時,很多台灣人就是所謂的「反中」。問題是,中國兩者兼備。後果就是,台灣內部的分歧遠遠超過了僅只是政治和經濟的層面。
如果你知道台灣是如何一路走來的,你會覺得它今天變成一個民主社會真是一個不得了的成就。沒有革命,一黨獨裁四十年的國民黨,不管你說它是自願還是被迫,放下了政權,分享權力。沒有流血,昔日牢裡的政治犯變成今日的立法者和政治領袖。1987年解嚴以後,政權的交替基本上公平而有序地進行了三十年。
台灣安靜地進行了三十年的民主,時間幾乎和它的國際孤立一樣長。美國不承認台灣的國家地位,但是,就如同當年對於德國,美國也扮演了安全守護者的角色。令人不安的是,在美國宣布要把軍售台灣常態化的同時,中國也宣布,它在台灣海峽及其領空,要把軍艦和戰機的演習常態化。
所以台灣民主的威脅其實是雙重的。比較明顯的是中國的威脅,這個威脅,往往超出台灣本身的控制能力。一個不那麼明顯的威脅,卻是內部自製的。台灣的政治人物和政黨熱切拿這個威脅做為政治資本,刺激集體恐懼來強化部落式的愛國主義。這種操作的成功,對台灣的民主制度和機構本身,是個真實的危險。
國際上那些純粹為了攻擊中國而故意把台灣捧在手心讚美的人,其實讓我坐立不安。一代又一代的台灣人為民主付出了代價,很大的代價,而得到今天的成果。這個成果,太珍貴了,不可以變成別人或別國為了自己的利益而拿來玩弄的籌碼或棋子。
德國的歷史是特殊的。德國的人民親身目睹了,如果不戒慎恐懼地去維護,一個開放合理的社會制度是如何容易地瓦解,一夜之間可以被獨裁取代。經歷了二戰,又擺脫了共產黨的歷史爭取到自由,德國可能比很多其他國家更容易理解台灣人的困境和追求。道德勇氣的來源往往是歷史的痛苦。身為歐盟的重要成員,德國有責任為世界的和平做出最大的努力,發揮最大的影響力。
但是,歐洲憑什麼一定要關心台灣呢?
首先,如果沒有台灣模式,全世界大概就都得接受一種說法,就是,儒家文化和民主制度是無法相容的,而所謂「中國模式」就是唯一邏輯、不可避免的現代中國。台灣的存在證明了一件事:未必如此。
第二,台灣本身的努力值得世界的尊敬。沒錯,如果中國是一艘航空母艦,那麼台灣只不過是一葉孤零零的獨木舟。可是在這個獨木舟上有兩千三百萬人正在追求一種有自由、有尊嚴的生活方式。如果台灣是歐盟的一個成員,就人口論,台灣就是二十八個成員國(英國脫歐後二十七國)中第七大國,比波蘭稍小,但比荷蘭和比利時大。以經濟購買力來看,台灣更是名列全球第二十二。所以,歐洲可以想像剝奪波蘭人或者荷蘭人對生活方式和政治體制的選擇權利嗎?
23 Million People on a Canoe
—Why Europe should care about Taiwan’s future
Lung Yingtai
On the day when the opposition party announced its presidential candidate for the 2020 election, I was sitting at a lunch table in Taipei listening to my intellectual friends uttering their concerns about the future of Taiwan. The pessimists phrased their pessimism in the form of questions such as “How many years do you think Taiwan has left?” The optimists expressed their optimism with dark humour, “Thank God they will be too busy with Hong Kong and the US for a while.”
Like Germany, Taiwan operates a trade surplus with mainland China and Hong Kong, amounting to $83.1 billion in 2018. With 41% of Taiwan’s exports going to China, Taipei’s economy depends on trade with the mainland. However, given the increasing tension across the Taiwan Strait, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) in particular has been worrying whether Taiwan will be able to sustain these figures. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party, on the other hand, is capitalizing on voters’ intense distrust of Beijing, stepping up measures to “contain” China’s influence. Taipei recently drafted a national security law that would make it a punishable offense to spread “political propaganda” for China.
As in Europe, Taiwanese feel highly ambivalent about mainland China: When China signifies economic opportunities, most Taiwanese are 23 Million People on a Canoe Why Europe should care about Taiwan’s future “pro-China”; when China represents oppression and potential invasion, most Taiwanese are “anti-China”. The problem is that China resembles both. The result is a deep division among Taiwanese extending far beyond the political and economic spheres.
Given the circumstances under which Taiwan emerged and evolved, its evolution into an authentic democracy represents an extraordinary achievement. It was without a revolution that the KMT, which had ruled Taiwan for more than 40 years, put an end to martial law and, whether convinced or compelled to act, opened the country’s political system to sharing power. Without bloodshed, dissidents who had once sat in jails became legislators and political leaders. Since the lifting of martial law 1987, power has changed hands fairly and orderly, following the results of each election.
Taiwan has been a quiet democracy for more than thirty years, nearly as long as the four decades during which it has been isolated by the international community. The US does not formally recognize Taiwan but, as with Germany, acts as the country’s security guarantor. While Washington has indicated that arms sales to Taiwan will become more of a routine, China has devised a routine of its own by holding long-range combat drills and ordering its fighter jets to cross the maritime line.
However, the threat to Taiwanese democracy is twofold. The obvious one comes from China, and to a large extent lies beyond Taipei’s control. The less obvious threat is home-made, as the looming China threat tempts domestic politicians to mobilize the population’s collective fear to foment a tribal nationalism. Their success would pose a real danger to Taiwan’s democratic institutions.
Those who applaud Taiwanese democracy for the sole purpose of criticizing China make me nervous. Generations of Taiwanese fought and ultimately achieved a democracy – it is simply too precious for other people’s agendas, internal or external.
Germany has a unique history: its people have experienced first-hand how easily democratic institutions may fall apart when not meticulously guarded. Having received democracy as a gift following World War II and struggled to regain their freedom from Communist rule, Germans are in a unique position to understand both the predicament as well as the aspirations of the Taiwanese. Moral courage often comes from past sufferings. As a leading EU member state, Germany has a responsibility to maximize its own efforts as well as to influence others’ efforts for world peace.
But why should the world care about the future of Taiwan? First of all, save the Taiwan model, the world might have to accept the claim that democracy and Confucianism are incompatible, and that a communist China presents the only logical and inevitable path to modernity. Secondly, Taiwan deserves respect on its own merits. True, if China were an aircraft carrier, Taiwan would be a lone canoe. But standing on this canoe are 23 million people aspiring for a life with liberty and dignity. If it were an EU member, Taiwan would be the 7th largest of the Union’s 28 member-states (27 after Brexit), smaller than Poland but larger than the Netherlands or Belgium, with a developed economy ranking 22nd in the world by purchasing power parity. Do we really want to return to a world in which it is imaginable that countries such as Poland or the Netherlands should be deprived of their autonomy to determine their own way of life and political system?
The Berlin Pulse 2019
龍應台專文:https://www.koerber-stiftung.de/fileadmin/user_upload/koerber-stiftung/redaktion/the-berlin-pulse/pdf/2019/3_Koerber_TheBerlinPulse_YingTai.pdf
全本:https://www.koerber-stiftung.de/fileadmin/user_upload/koerber-stiftung/redaktion/the-berlin-pulse/pdf/2019/TheBerlinPulse_2019_FINAL.pdf
potential candidate 中文 在 呂欣潔 Jennifer Lu Facebook 的最佳貼文
曼谷的朋友!明天晚上歡迎來東南亞最大的泰國外國記者協會參加「2018台灣少數平權影展」!
My friends in Bangkok!! Welcome to FCCT in Bangkok to join us for "Queer Taiwan"+ Q/A Talk for exchanging our experience in marriage equality campaign in Taiwan!!
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【「2018台灣少數平權影展」曼谷播映-婚姻平權大平台呂欣潔、劇場導演周東彥出席映後座談】
(泰、英、中文三語資訊,歡迎轉發給泰國及國際人士,一起來聽婚姻平權大平台東南亞國際交流,分享台灣婚姻平權議題)
※台灣同志平權電影放映+講座:《酷兒台灣》全球海外首播+婚姻平權大平台總召呂欣潔,出席東南亞規模最大的「泰國外國記者協會」(FCCT)講座,進行台灣婚姻平權議題國際交流 (9月24日星期一-晚上七點:泰國曼谷FCCT講座頁面:https://www.facebook.com/events/280776499422466/
「曼谷2018台灣少數平權影展」(2018 Taiwan "Minorities" Film Festival in Bangkok:LGBT/ Hakka/ Social Activism),由留學朱拉隆功大學的台灣學生陳彥霖獨立策畫,在曼谷播映八部台灣平權議題電影,呂欣潔、周東彥受邀出席,在泰國分享台灣平權議題。
第一場映後座談,分享台灣社會高度關注的「婚姻平權」,海外首映呈現婚姻平權正反方爭議及代理孕母、同志家長議題的紀錄片《酷兒台灣》,特別邀請婚姻平權大平台總召呂欣潔,在泰國外國記者協會(FCCT, Thailand Correspondents' Club of Thailand)映後分享,向國際人士分享台灣婚姻平權爭議及現況。
對談來賓包括泰國主要推動同志權益的機構APCOM總監(Director)- Midnight Poonkasetwattana,以及全球性非政府組織「人權觀察」亞洲事務副主任 Phil Robertson (Deputy Director, Asia Division, Human Rights Watch),分別從泰國及亞洲區域觀點,進行交流分享。
Queer Taiwan a discussion-Featuring Jennifer Lu (「酷兒台灣」播映-呂欣潔映後座談:台灣婚姻平權推動及挑戰)
日期:2018年9月24日 星期一
時間:晚上7點
地點:泰國外國記者協會 (FCCT, Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand)-近曼谷BTS Chit Lom站2號出口旁、Maneeya Center-P層(Penthouse) (地圖: https://goo.gl/maps/V3iHZYxfaaR2 ;https://www.fccthai.com/contact.html
歡迎轉發,「2018台灣少數平權影展-曼谷」,活動主頁(https://www.facebook.com/events/245873309346053/) 有泰、英、中文三語發布介紹,歡迎關心台灣婚姻平權的朋友一起到場討論,關注台灣平權議題。
捐款支持婚姻平權大平台:http://beebee.equallove.tw/#anchor-sec-support-now
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(English Version-)
Documentary: Queer Taiwan + Q/A TALK –First Country in Asia to Legalize Gay Marriage and its Challenges,
with Jennifer Lu, Chief Coordinator of Marriage Equality Coalition Taiwan (《酷兒台灣》紀錄片+映後座談:台灣婚姻平權大平台總召-呂欣潔)
Event Page:
https://www.facebook.com/events/280776499422466/ (FCCT Facebook)
https://www.fccthai.com/items/2575.html (FCCT Website)
7pm, Monday September 24, 2018
Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT),
Penthouse, Maneeya Center
518/5 Ploenchit Road (connected to the BTS Skytrain Chitlom station Exit 2)
In May 2019, Taiwan could potentially be the first Asian country to legalize same-sex marriage. There are major societal forces on both sides of the question on whether same sex marriage should be legalized, and LGBTQ equality should be the norm in Taiwan.
With these questions being faced, there will be a discussion and screenings of two film on these major societal questions at the FCCT on Monday, September 24th.
There will be a screening of the documentary Queer Taiwan, which features interviews with individuals that support and oppose the legalization of gay marriage in Taiwan. The film specifically focuses on the substantial animosity between the Equality Bees and the Family Guardian Coalition, which has only increased as this hot-button issue has become more prominent in Taiwanese society.
A second film on legality of surrogate pregnancy in Taiwan will also be screened. At present, surrogacy is completely illegal in Taiwan, no matter whether the potential parents are straight or LGBTQ. There is hope in Taiwanese that surrogacy will be a turning point for gay-parents, but many in Taiwanese society continue to believe that surrogacy should not be allowed in Taiwan no matter what the orientation of the parenting couple is.
After the films are shown there will be a discussion on these and other gay-rights issues in Taiwan. The discussion will feature Jennifer Lu, Chief Coordinator of Marriage Equality Coalition Taiwan, which is Taiwan's largest LGBTQ NGO working on gender issues and education. In January 2016, Jennifer ran for a Taiwanese parliament seat as a candidate for the Social Democratic Party. As part of her campaign she was able to raise the visibility of LGBTQ issues in Taiwanese society.
Other panelists include:
Phil Robertson Deputy Director, Asia Division, Human Rights Watch
Mr. Robertson oversees the organization's work throughout Asia, especially in Southeast Asia, North Korea and Japan.
Midnight Poonkasetwattana Executive Director APCOM
Before joining APCOM, Midnight worked for Purple Sky Network where he engaged with MSM and transgender communities in the Greater Mekong areas. He previously supported the implementation of HIV and human rights programmes in various countries throughout Asia and Eastern Europe as part of the International HIV/AIDS Alliance.
Free for FCCT members and 150 Baht for non-FCCT members
※This documentary screening is special event for 2018 Taiwan “Minorities” Film Festival in Bangkok (2018台灣少數平權影展-曼谷) https://www.facebook.com/events/245873309346053 (September 23-29, 2018-Bangkok, Thailand).
Donation for Marriage Equality Coalition Taiwan, to support Taiwan’s Gay Marriages: https://equallove.backme.tw/checkout/834/4761?locale=en
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“Queer Taiwan”-Documentary+ Q/A Talk in Bangkok
ไต้หวันอาจจะผ่านกฎหมายสิทธิการแต่งงานของบุคคลเพศเดียวกันในเดือนพฤษภาคมปีหน้า
แต่กว่าจะได้มาซึ่งสิทธินี้ พวกเขาต้องผ่านการต่อสู้กันมาอย่างไร? ...หาคำตอบได้ใน 2 สารคดีสั้น "Queer Taiwan" ซึ่งจะเล่าถึงความขัดแย้งในสังคมไต้หวันอันว่าด้วยการแต่งงานดังกล่าว และเรื่องราวของคู่รักเกย์ที่ต้องการรับบุตรบุญธรรม / จบแล้วพูดคุยกับ เจนนิเฟอร์ ลู(呂欣潔) หนึ่งในแอ็กติวิสต์เพื่อสิทธิ LGBT คนสำคัญ ร่วมด้วย APCOM และ Human Rights Watch
- จันทร์ 24 กันยายน (19.00 น.) ที่สโมสรผู้สื่อข่าวต่างประเทศประจำประเทศไทย (FCCT)
- บัตรราคา 150 บาท (ฟรีสำหรับสมาชิก FCCT)
- วิธีเดินทาง : https://goo.gl/maps/KUjQtTqmhtD2
https://www.fccthai.com/items/2575.html (FCCT Website)
https://www.facebook.com/events/280776499422466/ (FCCT Facebook)
ประกอบด้วยสารคดีสองเรื่อง ที่ว่าด้วยการต่อสู้เพื่อความเท่าเทียมทางเพศในไต้หวัน คือ
1. Back to the Start (30 นาที)
ว่าด้วยการต่อสู้เพื่อการได้สิทธิสมรสเพศเดียวกันในไต้หวัน กับแรงปะทะจากสังคมของผู้คนที่ไม่เห็นด้วย โดยหนังจะพาไปสำรวจว่าพวกเขากำลังต่อสู้กับอะไร? และเพื่ออะไร? ก่อนที่ไต้หวันจะเป็นประเทศแรกในเอเชียที่ผ่านกฏหมายสมรสเพศเดียวกัน ในเดือนพฤษภาคม ปี 2019
2. A Path to Happiness (30 นาที)
หลายคู่รักใฝ่ฝันที่จะมีครอบครัวแสนสุขและสมบูรณ์แบบ ไม่ว่าจะเป็นคู่รักต่างเพศหรือเพศเดียวกัน การอุ้มบุญจึงเกิดขึ้นเพื่อเติมเต็มความฝันนี้ แต่ขณะเดียวกันมันก็เป็นประเด็นแสนละเอียดอ่อน เพราะยังเป็นเรื่องผิดกฏหมายในหลายๆ ประเทศ
ดูจบแล้วพูดคุยต่อกับ Jennifer Lu หัวหน้าผู้ประสานงานของสมาคมผู้เรียกร้องความเสมอภาคในการสมรสแห่งไต้หวัน
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ติดตามรายละเอียดหนังทั้ง 7 เรื่องของ 2018 Taiwan “Minorities” Film Festival in Bangkok :
https://www.facebook.com/events/245873309346053/
Donation for Marriage Equality Coalition Taiwan, to support Taiwan’s Gay Marriages: https://equallove.backme.tw/checkout/834/4761?locale=en
potential candidate 中文 在 初夏的東港之櫻 Facebook 的最佳解答
那個南方叫屏東
屏東的黑鮪魚好ㄘ(〃∀〃)
【2016,這就是台灣人想要的總統!】
「妳回北京以後,告訴他們,」蔡英文說:「台灣的下一任總統曾經為妳服務過。」
(“Go back to Beijing,” says Tsai, “and tell them you were served by the next President of Taiwan.”)
上面那段話,是這幾天來,最讓我感佩與震撼的一段話。那是蔡英文主席接受《TIME》雜誌專訪長文的結語,鏗鏘有力,也讓人無比動容...
2016,我希望我能有幸擁有這樣的總統,一股溫柔的力量,卻又充滿自信與霸氣,不慍不火、不卑不亢,而這正是台灣這個即將新生的島國,用來在世界永續立足,最需要的態度。
朋友們告訴我,昨天附上的《TIME》雜誌英漢對照翻譯文章,已經被下架了。對此,我真的感到非常遺憾。(更新消息:PTT貼文者並非原譯,因恐引起誤會而刪文。原譯文出自獨立記者Jessie Chen臉書,特此致謝。)
對於那篇連夜趕出的翻譯稿,也許不同立場的朋友,會有不同想法與批評。但對於譯者的熱心與用心,我只有發自內心的感激和敬佩。因此,我在網路上找到備份文章,再一次(無修改)分享給我的朋友們,需要的,就幫忙再傳播出去吧!
德不孤必有鄰,一位擅長漫畫的朋友,也默默傳了她關於那段「溫柔力量」談話的圖像詮釋。淡淡的畫風,彷彿原景重現,對我而言,那份感動,似乎又更深了一些...
有人以文字速譯向小英致敬、有人以圖像速寫向小英致敬──
而我,只能藉此臉書一角,向翻譯者、漫畫家,跟小英總統本人,獻上最誠心的祝福與感謝!
謝謝你們,讓台灣變成一個更好更美的地方。
──────────底下為英漢對照翻譯原文──────────
民進黨主席暨總統參選人蔡英文登上最新一期時代雜誌封面,標題是「她將可能領導華人世界唯一民主國家, She Could Lead The Only Chinese Democracy」。蔡主席是繼印度總理莫迪、印尼總統佐科威、韓國總統朴槿惠後,最新一位登上時代雜誌封面的亞洲領導人。
中英譯全文:
雜誌封面
She Could Lead the Only Chinese Democracy
And that makes Beijing nervous
她將可能領導華人世界唯一的民主國家
這讓北京感到緊張
目錄頁
Cover Story: Championing Taiwan
Presidential front runner Tsai Ing-wen wants to put the island’s interests first
封面故事:壯大台灣
總統大選領先者蔡英文要將台灣利益置於優先
內頁大標
‘The Next President Of Taiwan’
That’s how Tsai Ing-wen refers to herself. But will the island’s voters agree?
台灣的下一任總統
蔡英文是這樣認為。但是這座島嶼的選民會同意嗎?
內文
Emily Rauhala / 台北報導 Adam Ferguson / 攝影
Tsai Ing-wen is making breakfast. The presidential candidate cracks five eggs and lets them bubble with bacon in the pan. She stacks slices of thick, white toast. It’s a recipe adapted from British chef Jamie Oliver, but the ingredients, she can’t help but say, are pure Taiwan. The meat comes courtesy of Happy Pig, a farm near her spare but tasteful Taipei apartment, the bread from a neighborhood bakery. She offers me an orange. “Organic,” she says, in English. “And local, of course.”
蔡英文正在做早餐。這位總統候選人打了五個蛋,和著平底鍋裡面的培根一起吱吱作響,再把一片片白色的厚片土司疊起來。料理手法學自英國名廚傑米奧利佛(Jamie Oliver),但是她忍不住要說,烹調食材屬於最純粹的台灣原料。培根來自「快樂豬」農場,距離她那簡單卻有品味的公寓不遠,而麵包是從她家附近的烘培坊買來的。她遞了一顆橘子給我,用英文跟我說:「有機的!當然也是在地的。」
This is not an average breakfast for the 58-year-old lawyer turned politician running to become Taiwan’s next President—most days she grabs a coffee and books it to the car. But it is, in many ways, oh so Tsai. The Taipei-raised, U.S.- and U.K.-educated former negotiator wrote her doctoral thesis on international trade law. As a minister, party chair and presidential candidate (she narrowly lost to two-term incumbent Ma Ying-jeou in the 2012 race), Tsai gained a reputation for being wonky—the type who likes to debate protectionism over early-morning sips of black coffee or oolong tea.
對於這位58歲、從律師轉變成政治人物的總統候選人來說,這可不是她平常吃的早餐。她通常隨手抓一杯咖啡在車上喝。不過許多方面來說,這應該可以算是一貫的「蔡式」風格。這位在臺北長大、在英美留學過的談判專家,博士論文寫的是國際貿易法。在她當陸委 會主委、民進黨主席、總統候選人期間(她在2012年的總統大選中以些微差距輸給了馬英九總統),得到學院派的風評──她是那種喜歡在早上喝黑咖啡或烏龍茶時,跟你辯論保護主義的人。
Now, as the early front runner in Taiwan’s January 2016 presidential election, her vision for the island is proudly, defiantly, Taiwan-centric. Tsai says she would maintain the political status quo across the strait with China—essentially, both Taipei and Beijing agreeing to disagree as to which represents the one, true China, leaving the question of the island’s fate to the future. But Tsai wants to put Taiwan’s economy, development and culture first. While Ma and his government have pushed for new trade and tourism pacts with Beijing—China accounts for some 40% of Taiwan’s exports—Tsai aims to lessen the island’s dependence on the mainland by building global ties and championing local brands. “Taiwan needs a new model, ” she tells TIME.
現在,身為在2016年台灣總統大選中的領先者,蔡英文的願景充滿自信又堅定地強調以台灣為核心。蔡英文說她會維持兩岸的現狀──這指的是說臺北與北京彼此同意對於何者代表中國保留不同的認知(註明:這是時代雜誌記者的見解),並且把這個島嶼的命運留給未來決定。但,蔡英文想要將台灣的經濟、發展與文化置於首位。當馬英九和他的政府推動與中國的貿易及觀光協議時(中國占台灣出口的百分之四十),蔡英文希望加強與世界連結、扶植台灣品牌,以降低台灣對中國的依賴。她對時代雜誌說:「台灣需要一個新模式」。
Whether voters share her vision is a question that matters beyond Taipei. Taiwan is tiny, with a population of only 23 million, but its economy—powered by electronics, agriculture and tourism—ranks about mid-20s in the world by GDP size, with a GDP per capita about thrice that of China’s. Ceded by China’s Qing dynasty to Japan after the 1894–95 First Sino-Japanese War, colonized by Tokyo for half a century, then seized by Nationalist forces fleeing the Communists at the end of the Chinese civil war, Taiwan has long been a pawn in a regional great game. It is a linchpin for the U.S. in East Asia alongside Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, and, most important, it’s the only real democracy in the Chinese-speaking world.
“This election matters because it’s a window into democracy rooted in Chinese tradition,” says Lung Ying-tai, an author and social commentator who recently stepped down as Culture Minister. “Because of Taiwan, the world is able to envision a different China.”
台灣的選民是否同意她的願景,是一件擴及台北以外的事情。台灣的土地雖小,只有兩千三百萬的人口,但是經濟因電子業,農業以及觀光業的支,以國內生產毛額來說在世界排名第二十幾名。台灣的國內人均產值則是中國的三倍。台灣在1894-95的中日戰爭被中國清朝割讓後,被日本殖民了半個世紀;之後在中國內戰結束時逃避共產黨的國民黨勢力給佔領。長期以來台灣是區域競爭中的一個棋子。在美國的東亞布局中,台灣、日本、南韓及菲律賓同為最關鍵的環節。更重要的是,台灣是在華語世界中唯一一個真正的民主國家。甫卸任文化部長的作者與社會評論員龍應台表示:「這場選舉很重要,因為它提供了一個窗口,讓外界一探以中華文化為根基的民主……因為台灣,世界得以想像一個不一樣的中國。」
Taiwan’s politics irritate and befuddle Beijing. To the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Taiwan is the province that got away, a living, breathing, voting reminder of what could happen to China if the CCP loosens its grip on its periphery, from Tibet to Xinjiang to Hong Kong. Beijing is particularly wary of a change in government from Ma’s relatively China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) to Tsai’s firmly China-skeptic Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). When Tsai ran for President in 2012, Beijing blasted her, without actually naming her, as a “troublemaker” and “splittist”—CCP-speak reserved for Dalai Lama–level foes. “A DPP government means uncertainty for cross-strait ties,” says Lin Gang, a Taiwan specialist at Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
台灣的政治讓北京感到惱怒又百思不解。對中國共產黨來說,台灣是一個逃走的省,也是對中國活生生的提醒──若中國鬆懈對於香港、西藏及新疆等非核心地區的掌控時,可能會發生的事。北京對於台灣的政權,由對中國相對友善的馬政府輪替到對中國保持疑慮的民進黨,抱持格外戒慎的態度。蔡英文在2012年參選總統的時候,北京雖然沒有指名道姓,卻明顯對她大肆抨擊,說她是一個「麻煩製造者」或「分裂主義者」——在共產黨的術語中,這些話專門達賴喇嘛這一層級的仇敵。任教於上海交通大學國際與公共關係學院的台灣事務專家林岡說:「民進黨政府代表的是兩岸關係的不確定性。」
To the U.S., which is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to come to the island’ s aid if it’s attacked, Taiwan is a longtime friend and unofficial ally, though the strength of that friendship is being tested by China’s rise. Washington worries that Taiwan’s people, especially its youth, are growing warier of China, and that any conflict between the two might draw in the U.S.
“What this election has done is crystallize the changes, the shift in public opinion,” says Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan scholar at Davidson College in North Carolina and the author of Why Taiwan Matters. “I don’t think cross-strait relations are going to be easy going forward, and that’s not something U.S. policymakers want to hear.”
對美國來說,根據《台灣關係法》,在台灣受到武力攻擊的情況下,須協防台灣。台灣是美國長期友邦和非正式盟國,儘管兩國之間友誼的強度正受到中國崛起的考驗。華府擔心台灣人民,特別是年輕人,對於中國的警戒心逐漸提高,而兩者之間的衝突可能會把美國牽扯進來。著有《台灣為何重要》(Why Taiwan Matters)一書的美國北卡羅來那州戴維森大學(Davidson College)教授任雪麗(Shelley Rigger)說:「這場選舉讓所有的改變具體化,反映出民意板塊的移動……我不認為接下來的兩岸關係會更融洽,而這不是美國的政策制定者想要聽到的東西。」
The KMT has yet to formally nominate a candidate for the top job, but the favorite is Hung Hsiu-chu, the legislature’s female deputy speaker. Nicknamed ”little hot pepper” because of her diminutive stature and feisty manner, Hung, 67, would be a contrast to the more professorial Tsai should she get the KMT’s nod. “I don’t think [Tsai] is a strong opponent,” Hung tells TIME. Yet the DPP’s choice, who has already started pressing the flesh islandwide, is spirited too. “People have this vision of me as a conservative person, but I’m actually quite adventurous,” she says. And possessed of a sharp sense of humor—when I compliment her cooking, Tsai looks at me with mock exasperation: “I have a Ph.D., you know.”
國民黨雖然還未正式提名總統候選人,但目前最被看好的就是立法院副院長洪秀柱。因為身材嬌小與好戰性格而被封為「小辣椒」的洪秀柱(67歲),如果獲黨的提名,將與擁有學者形象的蔡英文,呈現顯著的對比。洪秀柱向時代記者表示:「我不認為蔡英文是一位強的對手」。然而,民進黨的候選人已經士氣高昂,在全台各地展開競選活動。蔡英文說:「有些人認為我是一個保守的人,但我其實是很愛冒險的」。她有一種犀利的幽默感──當我讚美她的廚藝時,她用搞笑的語氣假裝惱怒說:「我可是擁有博士學位的。」
Tsai grew up in a home on Taipei’s Zhongshan Road North, a street named after Taiwan’s symbolic father, Sun Yat-sen, the Chinese revolutionary who helped overthrow the Qing and co-founded the KMT. Her own father, an auto mechanic turned property developer, was of the Confucian kind: he encouraged her to study hard but also expected her, as the youngest daughter, to devote herself to his care. “I was not considered a kid that would be successful in my career,” says Tsai.
蔡英文在台北的中山北路長大,這條街是以革命推翻清朝、成立國民黨並視為國父的孫逸仙命名。她的父親是一位修車技師,後來成為土地開發商。他承襲了儒家思想,希望蔡英文要用功讀書,但也期許身為小女兒的蔡英文可以留在父親身邊照顧他。蔡英文說:「我小時候不是一個被認為未來會有成就的孩子。」
After attending university in Taiwan, she studied law at Cornell in New York because, she says, it seemed the place for a young woman who “wanted to have a revolutionary life.” From there she went to the London School of Economics, where she earned her Ph.D., also in law, in less than three years. “That pleased my father,” she says. When he called her home, she obliged, returning to Taiwan to teach and, in 1994, to enter government in a series of high- profile but mostly policy-oriented roles in the Fair Trade Commission, National Security Council and Mainland Affairs Council.
在台灣大學畢業後,她前往紐約州康乃爾大學研讀法律,因為她說,這是一個「想過革命性的生活」的年輕女子該去的地方。之後,她前往倫敦政治經濟學院攻讀法學博士,並且三年不到就獲得學位。她說:「這讓我父親很高興」。她遵從父親的意思返回台灣,先回大學教書並在1994年進入政府,出任公平交易委員會、國安會及陸委會等一系列重要的、政策導向的職位。
Even close supporters say Tsai was, and perhaps still is, an unlikely politician, especially for the DPP. Taiwan’s opposition party was forged in struggle and led by veterans of the democracy movement—a fight Tsai mostly missed. The Kaohsiung Incident in 1979—a human-rights rally that was violently broken up by security forces, galvanizing the democracy movement— took place while Tsai was overseas, cocooned in the ivory tower. If the archetypal DPP operative is a bare-knuckle street fighter, Tsai is an Olympic fencer—restrained and precise.
就連許多親近蔡英文的支持者都認為,蔡英文是一位非典型的政治人物,特別就民進黨而言。身為在野黨的民進黨,在台灣民主運動的奮鬥過程中焠煉而成,由民主運動的老兵所成立,這是一場蔡英文錯過的戰役。1979年高雄的美麗島事件,當一場人權遊行遭警政單位暴力驅散,而後來激勵了台灣的民主運動,蔡英文當時正在國外求學,受到象牙塔的庇護。若說民進黨的典型人物是赤手空拳的街頭鬥士,蔡英文則是一位奧林匹克級的劍術家:自我克制又精確到位。
She stepped into the spotlight in 2008, becoming party chair when the DPP found itself booted from office, with its chief Chen Shui-bian, the outgoing President, later convicted of corruption. While she possessed a deep knowledge of policy, Tsai did not then seem like a leader. “She used to sort of hide behind me when we went door to door,” recalls legislator Hsiao Bi-khim, a longtime colleague and friend. “People compared her to a lost bunny in the forest, with wolves surrounding, both from within the party and outside.
在2008年民進黨失去政權,而前總統陳水扁隨即遭貪汙罪起訴的時刻,蔡英文踏入了鎂光燈下,成為民進黨主席。雖然蔡英文對於政策擁有深度的瞭解,但當時她還不像一位領導人。長期以來是她同事與朋友的立法委員蕭美琴說「以前當我們挨家挨戶去拜訪時,她有點會躲在我身後」。「有些形容她為一個在森林裡迷路的兔子,被黨內與黨外的狼群包圍。」
After an unsuccessful 2010 mayoral bid, Tsai ran for, and also lost, the presidency in 2012. Jason Liu, a veteran DPP speechwriter, says now that the campaign did not “sell” Tsai well enough. The ideas were strong, but the delivery left “distance between her and the voters.” Ironically, it was not until her concession speech that Tsai seemed to connect emotionally with Taiwan’s citizens. “You may cry,” she told the tearful crowd. “But don’t lose heart.”
2010年,蔡英文參與市長選舉失利,在2012年也沒順利當選總統。民進黨資深文膽劉建忻表示,當時的競選總部對於「行銷」蔡英文這個概念,做得不夠好;雖然擁有許多好點子,但是執行上還是「讓選民感到有所距離」。諷刺地,一直到敗選感言,蔡英文才似乎與台灣人民產生情感上的連結。她對含著淚水的群眾表示:「你可以哭泣,但不能洩氣。」
A lot has changed since 2012. Eleven hours after making eggs, with a policy meeting, a cross-country train ride and a harbor tour behind her, Tsai is addressing a couple hundred students at a university in the southern city of Kaohsiung, a DPP stronghold. She’s in lecture mode, at ease, talking about her party’s economic plans: stronger regional links and a focus on innovation to support small businesses. “How many of you went to Taipei for the Sunflower protests?” she asks in Mandarin. At least a third raise their hands.
2012年之後的台灣,歷經了許多改變。蔡英文煎蛋後的11個小時後,歷經了一場政策會議、搭乘高鐵從北一路向南、緊接著進行高雄碼頭導覽。她抵達南台灣民進黨的重鎮高雄,向數百位大學生發表演說。她以一派輕鬆的授課模式,闡述著民進黨的經濟計畫:加強區域間的連結,並聚焦於支持創新的小型經濟。她用中文詢問在場學生「你們之中有多少人去台北參加過太陽花學運?」現場至少有三分之一的學生舉起了手。
Taiwan’s students were once seen as apathetic. But during spring last year, Taipei was swept up by thousands-strong demonstrations over a services pact with China. Student and civic groups worried that the deal could hurt Taiwan’s economy and leave it vulnerable to pressure from Beijing. They felt it was pushed through without adequate public scrutiny. The Sunflower Movement, as it came to be called after a florist donated bundles of the blooms, grew into a grassroots revolt, culminating in the March 18 storming of the legislature.
台灣的學生過去一度被視為相當冷漠。但是在去年的春天,台北市被數以千計的抗議者淹沒,反對與中國簽訂的服務貿易協議。學生與公民團體擔憂這個協議會傷害台灣經濟,讓台灣的經濟受制於中國壓力而變得脆弱。他們也認為,服貿協議的推動並沒有經過適當的公民審議。太陽花運動是民間累積的抗爭與不滿,在3月18日這天一舉衝進立法院,運動的稱號是由於抗爭期間一位花販捐贈了大量太陽花而因此命名。
The movement was grounded in questions of social justice. Since coming to power in 2008, Ma has argued that cross-strait commerce is the key to the island’s fortunes, signing 21 trade deals. Yet young people in particular wonder if the deals benefit only Big Business on both sides of the strait. They say rapprochement with Beijing has left them none the richer, and agonize over the high cost of housing, flat wages and the possibility of local jobs going to China. A sign during a protest outside the Presidential Palace on March 30 last year captured the mood: “We don’t have another Taiwan to sell.”
這個運動的主要訴求就是社會正義。自從國民黨2008年執政以來,簽訂了21個兩岸貿易協定,馬英九主張兩岸的商業往來是台灣最關鍵的財富來源。但是年輕人質疑這項論述,他們認為這些貿易協議只有兩岸的大財團獲利。他們說北京的和解政策並沒有讓年輕人變得富有,反而讓他們受困於高房價、停滯的薪資、以及在地工作機會可能流失到中國的可能性。在去年3月30日於總統府外的抗議中,有個標語最能捕捉整體的社會氛圍:「台灣只有一個,賣了就沒了!」
The emphasis on quality of life, and not just macro-indicators, is good news for Tsai. Her vision for a more economically independent Taiwan did not sway the electorate in 2012 but may now have stronger appeal. The KMT, bruised by the Sunflower protests and then battered by fed-up voters in midterm polls last fall, is trying to remake itself as a more populist party. Timothy Yang, a former Foreign Minister who is now vice president of the National Policy Foundation, the KMT’s think tank, says the party stands by its cross-strait record. But even Yang, a KMT stalwart, is keen to address the issue of equity:
“The benefits of this interaction with mainland China should be shared with the general public.”
台灣社會對於生活品質的重視,而非僅僅強調宏觀經濟指標,對蔡英文來說是件好事。她希望打造一個經濟上更加獨立的台灣,雖然這個理念在2012年並沒有說動選民,但,現在可能更有吸引力。國民黨在太陽花運動中受到重創,在去年秋天的期中選舉中又再度被選民以選票教訓。現在,國民黨試圖把自己再造成一個民粹的政黨。目前擔任國民黨智庫『國家政策基金會』副董事長的前外交部長楊進添先生受訪時說道,「國民黨堅持其兩岸的立場」。但即便像楊進添這樣堅定的國民黨員,也熱衷於解決公平的議題。他說:「兩岸互動的利益,應該要與全民共享!」
Tsai should easily carry traditional DPP support: much of the south, the youth vote, and those who identify as Taiwanese and who are not a part of the elite that came from China after the CCP victory in 1949. The DPP’s missing link is Big Business, which supports the KMT and closer ties with the mainland, where many Taiwan companies are invested. Tsai recognizes that this is a constituency she needs to woo but doesn’t seem clear as to how, beyond saying, “Our challenge is to produce something that is sensible to both sides without being considered as a traitor to the friends we used to be with when we were an opposition party.”
蔡英文要得到傳統民進黨的支持並不難,例如南部選民、年輕選票、還有那些認同自己是台灣人,而不是1949年中國共產黨勝利後來自中國的精英份子。然而,民進黨缺乏與大企業的連結,因為台灣企業大量投資大陸,而其中這些大財團多半支持國民黨,以及與大陸建立更緊密的關係。蔡英文也理解到這是她必須要去吸引的一群選民,但是對於如何進行並沒有太清楚的圖像。她說:「我們的挑戰是要去創造雙方都認為合理的立場,又不能被我們在野時的朋友認為是叛徒。」
That will be hard. The KMT has long argued that it, not the DPP, is best qualified to run the economy, which, corruption apart, did not do well under Chen. Tsai’s supporters concede that many citizens feel the same way—that the DPP can be an effective opposition but not administration. “The KMT has always portrayed itself as more suited to guide the economy,” says J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute and a senior officer at Tsai’s Thinking Taiwan Foundation. “There’s this stubborn perception that a DPP government would be bad for business.”
這是困難的挑戰。國民黨長期主張自己比民進黨更擅長治理經濟,尤其陳水扁執政時期除了貪污,經濟表現並不好。蔡英文的支持者也同意,確實有些民眾認為民進黨可是一個稱職的反對黨,但不是執政黨。諾丁漢大學中國政策研究中心資深研究員暨小英基金會資深主管寇謐將(J. Michael Cole)說:「國民黨把自己描繪是一個更適合主導經濟的政黨。另外也有一種僵化的刻版印象,認為民進黨執政對企業不利。」
It’s a narrative that the CCP backs and may well float as the campaign progresses, either directly, in China’s state-controlled press, or indirectly, through, for instance, its connections in Taiwan’s business community. “Beijing is going to want to make a point through all sorts of channels, including Big Business, that cross-strait relations will not be as smooth if you vote a government into power that has not accepted the foundation that has underpinned developments of the last eight years,” says Alan Romberg, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
這種論調受到中國共產黨的支持,並且今隨著選戰的進展不斷被拋出。共產黨可能直接地利用中國控制的媒體影響選舉,或是間接地透過中國與台灣商業界的連結。美國華府智庫史汀森研究中心(Stimson Center)資深學者容安瀾(Alan Romberg)說:「北京將會透過大企業等各種管道來闡述其立場,表明要是台灣人民讓一個不接受過去八年兩岸發展基
礎的政府執政,兩岸關係的發展將不會如現在一樣平順。」
Beijing has never been receptive to a DPP government, but it is particularly negative now. Since coming to power in 2012, China’s leader Xi Jinping has proved himself to be more assertive and nationalistic than most expected, a man not eager to compromise. Last September he told a delegation from the island that China and Taiwan might be one day be reunited under Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” formula, which is rejected by both the KMT and DPP and, surveys consistently show, the vast majority of Taiwan’s people. This May, Xi warned again about the danger of “separatist forces”—a comment widely interpreted as a swipe at the DPP.
北京對於民進黨政權的接受度向來不高,但現在尤其抱持負面的態度。中國領導人習近平在2012年掌權後,證明自己比外界想像的還更加武斷,帶有更強烈的民族主義色彩,是一個不輕易妥協的人。去年九月,他對一個來自台灣的代表團說,中國和台灣可望採用香港「一國兩制」的模式統一,然而這卻是一個國民黨和民進黨都反對的方案,而且民調也一再顯示,絕大多數的台灣人民無法接受。今年五月,習近平再度警告「分裂主義勢力」會帶來的危險──這段說詞普遍被外界詮釋為對民進黨的抨擊。
Cross-strait relations are managed according to the so-called 1992 Consensus reached by Beijing and Taipei (then also governed by the KMT), a formula the KMT’s Yang calls “a masterpiece of ambiguity.” Under the 1992 Consensus, both sides acknowledge that there is only one China, but without specifying what exactly that means. This, Yang says, has allowed the KMT to move forward on bilateral trade, transport and tourism without being forced to address whether “one China” is the China imagined by Beijing or by Taipei.
兩岸關係是治理目前根據北京和台北(當時為國民黨執政)之間所謂的九二共識,這是一個被國民黨的楊進添形容為「模糊性的一大鉅作」的政策。根據九二共識,雙方承認只有一個中國,但不表明一個中國的確切意含。楊進添說,這讓國民黨在推展雙邊貿易、交通和觀光方面得以取得進展,而不需被迫去回答「一個中國」究竟是北京或是台北心目中的中國。
The DPP has long promoted de jure independence. The first clause in its charter calls for “the establishment of an independent sovereignty known as the Republic of Taiwan,” not the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name. This platform resonates with the DPP base but is increasingly untenable given China’s economic clout and growing power on the world stage. While the first DPP presidency under Chen was hardly a break from the past, it did see a cooling with Beijing. Things warmed again under Ma. Lin, the Taiwan expert at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, says Tsai is somewhere between Chen and Ma: “If she wins the election, she will not pursue Taiwan in dependence. But she will not promote the development of the cross-strait relationship as Ma Ying-jeou did.”
民進黨過去長期以來推動台灣的法理獨立。民進黨黨綱第一條闡明「建立主權獨立自主的台灣共和國」,而非台灣的正式國號中華民國。這個立場獲得民進黨基本盤的認同,卻在中國的經濟實力成長與中國在世界舞台上崛起之下,越來越無法實現。儘管陳水扁主政時期的民進黨政府跟過去的政策並無太大差別,但跟北京的關係確實趨向冷淡。馬英九主政時期兩岸關係再度暖化。上海交通大學的台灣專家林岡說,蔡英文的立場介於馬英九和陳水扁之間。他說:「如果她勝選,她不會追求台灣獨立。但她也不會像馬英九一樣推動兩岸關係的發展。」
Tsai stresses that she will not alter the politics between Taiwan and China, but she is vague about whether she will repeal the DPP’s independence clause. And unification? That, she says, “is something you have to resolve democratically—it is a decision to be made by the people here.”
蔡英文強調她不會改變台灣和中國之間的政治關係,但對於是否撤回台獨條文卻是依然維持模糊。至於統一呢?她說:「那是必須經由民主程序解決的事情——這是一個必須經由此地的人民來做的決定。」
Hung, Tsai’s potential KMT opponent, says the DPP flag bearer needs to clarify her stance on cross-strait relations. “People ask her, ‘What is the status quo?’ and she can’t say anything specific,” says Hung. The KMT’s Yang offers a metaphor: “Before you harvest, you have to plow the land, transplant the seedlings, fertilize; all the work … has been done by the KMT, and yet they are going to harvest the crop?”
蔡英文的在對手洪秀柱說,民進黨的掌舵手需要清楚地闡明她對兩岸關係的立場。洪秀柱說:「大家問她『維持現狀是什麼意思?』,她卻沒有給具體的回應。」國民黨的楊進添用一個比喻:「在收割之前,要先耕地、播種、施肥;所有的工作……都已經被國民黨完成了,然而他們現在卻想要收割?」
Tsai believes she will win that right. Several days before I return to my Beijing base, over Taiwan-Japanese fusion in Kaohsiung, Tsai is quietly confident that she will gain the trust of Taiwan’s voters and secure victory, whatever Beijing might think. She puts a final piece of tuna on my plate. It’ s from Pingtung County in the south, where she was born. “Go back to Beijing,” says Tsai, “and tell them you were served by the next President of Taiwan.”
蔡英文相信她會贏得這項權利。在我返回北京駐點的前幾天,我們在一家位於高雄的台式日本料理小店用餐,蔡英文對於取得台灣選民的信任並贏得選戰,展現出低調的自信。當時,她把最後一片鮪魚夾到我的盤子上。那塊鮪魚來自南方的屏東,她的出生地。「妳回北京以後,告訴他們,」蔡英文說:「台灣的下一任總統曾經為妳服務過。」
—With reporting by Zoher Abdoolcarim, Gladys Tsai and Natalie Tso/Taipei
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圖片:猜猜看,認出畫風了嗎?^^
(歡迎任何形式分享,一律免問)
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