【LPL賽前分析】2021夏季總決賽 FPX vs EDG
-近年來LPL的競爭力逐漸提升,無非是當前英雄聯盟數一數二的賽區,而FPX與EDG戰隊本季的優異表現受到粉絲青睞,在世界賽的旅程寄予厚望,因此這場總決賽的結果可說是難以預測。
-在LPL中FPX戰隊以64%的首殺率統治整個賽區,前五次擊殺率也來到72%,這些要歸功於中路選手Doinb的發揮,他被稱為世界上最多變的中路選手,龐大的角色池使團隊產生神奇的化學效應。
在夏季賽中,他的伊瑞莉亞表現有目共睹,在比賽中經常獲得MVP肯定,面對狀態極佳的FPX戰隊,EDG想拿到首殺似乎有些困難。
-而EDG戰隊能走到這一步,下路選手Viper至關重要,保證下路線的發育將是贏得比賽的重要基礎。因此中路選手Scout勢必要取得中路的線權並對於下路線有相當程度的照顧,如下路雙人組能順利取得優勢,預示者與第一座的外塔勢在必得,這是EDG的勝利方程式,FPX戰隊對於這點必須有所對策。
-我想,當EDG戰隊對預示者發起進攻時,FPX可能轉而爭取第一條的小龍換取資源。
-兩支戰隊目前的狀態都不算差,兩方打野的進攻套路將是決定比賽勝負的關鍵。根據DJEsports數據分析,FPX獲得第一條巴龍取得比賽勝利的機率較高,預測會以三比一贏得本次系列賽。
A Preview of the World Championship
FPX vs EDG
Match Time: Sep 2nd 17:30 GMT+8
You’ve seen how competitive LPL is this year. Many are already saying it’s one of, if not the best seasons yet. Since FPX and EDG are both favored by fans to win LPL in preparation for Worlds, this game is very likely going to be a preview of all the chaos, charades, and FUN you’re going to witness Worlds.
As one of the few teams left, FPX dominates the rest with their 64% First Blood rate. They also have a 72% on First 5 Kills, thanks to Doinb, often dubbed the most versatile midlaner in the World. Besides a crazily huge pool of champions at his disposal, Doinb is an effective carry or support for his team too. In this year's Summer playoffs, he locked in Irelia to much surprises, but still managed to make her work to FPX’s favor as the MVP in playmaking. Against a team like FPX, EDG simply has no chance to get the First Blood.
EDG have star players of their own. Their ADC Viper is a late game hyper carry. This means EDG is going to be laying groundwork early on for him by feeding him kills in the early game. This is where their midlaner Scout comes into play, as he often rotates to the bottom in order to finish the fight that Viper and his support started. Once the job is done, expect a fast recall from EDG’s entire team, followed by a teleport to rush the Rift Herald for first turret takedown. This has always been their bread and butter strategy, executed to perfection. You’re betting off backing FPX here.
When this is going on, FPX will use this opportunity to go for the first dragon of the game.
Both teams are in excellent conditions and they have the world's top junglers. How this game plays out may be determined on the route their junglers take. To DJ Esports, there’s only a clear cut winner to this and that’s FPX. We are optimistic that FPX will get the first Baron and win this series 3-1 in the LPL division as first seed.
♦預測推薦:
比分預測:FPX 3:1 EDG
首殺預測:FPX
首塔預測:EDG
小龍預測:FPX
預示者預測:EDG
巴龍預測:FPX
立即參加預測:http://djesports.io/
DJ Esports電競 Discord頻道:https://discord.gg/djesportsx
「betting pool」的推薦目錄:
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betting pool 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
今天, 應該是最炫最酷的一家公司, Robinhood, 上市的一天. 它獲利了嗎? 我想沒有多少投資人會care. 最關心的, 應該是它的營收成長率, 還有股價.
在我們一直追逐科技成長股, 被他們的高營收成長率, 潛在的高報酬昏眩的時候, 會不會忘記他們醜得要命的財務報表?
而在今年, 大家追逐的這些趨勢股表現不佳的時候, 是不是也給了我們一些省思?
其實美股中, 還有很多財務報表漂亮, 但聽起來一點也不有趣(甚至很無聊)的公司, 但他們股價穩定, 長期下來, 也給了投資人很大的回報. 像之前介紹過的POOL, 過去幾年也是平均一年翻一倍的漲幅.
而在IPO中, 也有這類的好公司.
Carrier Global(CARR), 2020年4月上市的IPO, 算是工業類股, 漲了快5倍. 有在獲利. (開利冷氣應該有聽過?就是這家公司)
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), 民生消費股, 也有獲利, 2020年10月上市的IPO, 目前也漲了3倍.
下面這篇文章挺好. 與大家分享. 就像文章作者所提的, 龜兔賽跑, 穩(漲)的烏龜, 不一定會輸.
也祝福大家找到&培養自己的能力圈, 穩穩獲利.
Jim Cramer: The Biggest Thing That Happened Thursday Was the Boring Stuff
No, it wasn't Robinhood or the mega-cap tech companies, it was names we depend on like Carrier Global.
By JIM CRAMER Jul 29, 2021 | 03:38 PM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: HOOD, FB, PYPL, CARR, RTX, NUE, AGCO, ZM, ALGN, AAPL, EBAY, AMD, XLNX
One of the most glorious things I have seen involving the stock market in ages happened today.
Was it Vlad Tenev ringing the opening bell for his breakthrough, disruptive Robinhood (HOOD) , representing 22 million mostly young new investors? Was it the free-for-all decline in the stock of the "F" in FAANG, Facebook (FB) ? Or the clobbering that Paypal (PYPL) took after what looked to be a good quarter?
Nah. I was bumping into Dave Gitlin, CEO of Carrier Global (CARR) , and his charming daughter, a college student at the University of Wisconsin. They were calmly waiting for me to finish "Squawk on the Street" to say, "Hi," and I couldn't be more thrilled. Because unlike the much ballyhooed Robinhood deal, which seems like a bust, Carrier Global came public back in April 2020 at $12 and today, after tremendous earnings, not sales, but earnings, it made an all-time high at $53, after reporting a terrific number with tremendous HVAC sales, up 31%, and an earnings surprise of 55 cents vs. the 30 cents that Wall Street was expecting.
Carrier, which was spun off when United Technologies merged with Raytheon (RTX) had some tailwinds, like the need to have clean air inside, because of the pandemic and clear air outside because office buildings are responsible for 40% of carbon emissions. But the huge upside surprise and the gigantic buyback belonged to Dave and his team and I that's what I told his daughter. I made sure she knew how proud she should be about how this man made so much money for people. Twelve to 53 in 15 months time is the name of the game.
Look, I am not trying to take away from anything that Robinhood and its co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev have created. Far from it. They have created billions for themselves and are now letting people participate in their great sales growth. You got a chance to pay a fortune per share and many Robinhoodies did, as tons of stock was allocated to the 22 million people who joined Robinhood, because of a bang up app that every young person seems to know.
I am simply saying that HVAC, yep heating, ventilation and air conditioning is one of the most boring businesses on earth and at times like today, with all of the hoopla of Robinhood it is easy to forget is how lots of money can be made being boring, and I like that. The most exciting thing that happened this year is Carrier helped provide refrigeration for vaccines. That's just fine with me.
Unlike Robinhood, Carrier hasn't brought anyone into the stock market. It's more laser-like focus on air conditioning once spun off from Raytheon means nothing to people. Just Wall Street gibberish. But you have probably walked by a Carrier machine thousands of times and never thought anything of it. Yet, you could have bought it for a song at six times earnings instead of 25 times sales.
The Carriers, with CEOs who pay themselves lavishly but perhaps not excessively, or the Nucor's (NUE) the steel company that's also well managed and sells at six times earnings, represent valuable properties, especially when the U.S. government is about to agree on a trillion dollar infrastructure bill and the country has more than 6% GDP. We don't know why they are re-opening trades or closing trades, delta-variant trades or building and bridge investments. Forgive me, though for comparing the company of Robinhood, with something that may stay special for a while vs. companies that get described as venerable, solid and built to last.
These companies are not rarities. You know people have to eat, right? You know that there would be famine without farming. So why not buy the stock of Agco (AGCO) , No. 2 farm equipment, which went from $40 to $130 in a year and a half without ever being expensive. Combines too boring? Again fine with me. Now that the masks are off -- or at least in some places, although Zoom (ZM) is still crushing it -- I, like many others, including my daughter, didn't like how her teeth looked even as, to me, they were perfect. Dentists tell you to get Align (ALGN) . I wanted them on "Mad Money" but the show was just too darned jammed. The stock's up the most in the S&P 500, with a product that, again, like the Purloined Letter, is right in front of you.
I love tech. Created the term FANG, added the "A" when it was clear that Apple (AAPL) had to take the acronymic stage between another "A" and an "N." I am proud that those who bet against me on Twitter, the legion, are betting against FAANG. I wrote obituaries for a goodly time in my career as a reporter but I never wrote as many as have been penned to talk about the group has already made the ultimate measure on behalf of shareholders.
Oh and it's not like I don't like tech or fin tech. I felt the slings and arrows of Facebook and PayPal today. Facebook's management once again lowered the boom on its future talking about real deceleration in growth. I thought it was too dire. PayPal's Dan Schulman talked about how the separation with its former partner, eBay (EBAY) gets done now and earnings will be hurt. This was one of the least revelatory surprises ever. I think both are practicing UPOD, Underpromising to Overdeliver, and, sure this time might be different, but it's sure been the way they have handled it in the past.
Far better to be in the straight out blow outs like Advance Micro (AMD) which had still one more banner day, this time because the company it is buying, the dowdy Xilinx (XLNX) , a sleepy semiconductor company, had tremendous earnings. The two together could be unassailable and even as AMD is now richly valued it is deservingly so.
I can't wait to hear Vlad Tenev's reflection on Robinhood's debut as a public company and about the novel offering that gave millions of shares to his clients. Vlad's not so much a rags to riches American story. He's a poor Bulgarian to insanely rich American because of his on ingenuity. That's a story with celebrating in itself.
I am simply pointing out that unlike Vlad, whom you would have had invested with when you weren't allowed or able to, Dave Gitlin sure didn't keep you out of the better bet, the stock of HVAC king Carrier.
You did.
betting pool 在 君子馬蘭頭 - Ivan Li 李聲揚 Facebook 的精選貼文
[祝君早安]王維基最開心吧。但,買股票會唔會畀人鬧?
TLDR:1137今日有冇得升?小小吧,一個消息點炒兩次?同場加映Michael Sandel式兩千字討論買疫情受惠股係咪人血饅頭
1. 大家當然會講跳老舞群組,以及啲年紀分佈,同埋君臨天下。呢啲交畀友版 新田飛地講啦 (不過佢呢排好似好忙)。本人呢,都係關心 王維基隻HKTV Mall 1137多啲。
2. 忽然醒起日本311地震時,本人都係叫訓身買落去。當時都畀中學師奶質疑我冷血。我不知道呢個係讚定彈,是但。反正最後互噴一輪口水,都係誰也說服不了誰。而當然可以話「嘩死咁多人你仲掛住呢啲」,不過,首先我(當時)嘅工作就係提供意見提供分析,你放工寫返幾萬字悼念,兩者並無矛盾。二來,再諗下,市場點都係有人買,否則就唔係跌10% 跌20%,係跌到冇成交。咁難道買嗰啲又冷血?好多都係日本人本身吧。當然再誇張啲嘅,可以講到你買落去先係支持日本人,又好似啱喎。
3. 講到尾,我覺得係WFC的。再睇另一個情況,美國911,當時我都仲在英國讀書。但你可以睇返,美股大跌後,媒體又好,投行又好,都係叫買。並不存在咩人血饅頭,唔好用得咁濫。
4. 我諗個關鍵係,你唔係「bet on other’s lives」嘛。掉轉頭,賣保險買保險嘅,都知有insurable interest,你不能幫個陌生人買人壽,佢死咗你有錢分。除咗係防止你去搵人斬死佢外,亦因為「拎人地條命嚟賭」,本質上就好多人不能接受。Michael Sandel在《Justice》之中有講(點會少得佢呢),仲有講Death Pool—例如我開個盤去買啲名人(成龍?江澤民?Morgan Freeman?)邊個死先。似乎唔會令你謀害佢,但本質上都係有啲問題。
5. 但,what about 有啲公司,幫自己嘅員工買保險(美國有的)?你死咗,公司有錢分。會唔會令佢疏忽啲?可能唔會,但,你係員工,會唔會唔多自在?
6. What about 所謂嘅prediction markets?政治期貨,林鄭幾時落台固然有得賭,但曾幾何時,連恐怖襲擊都有得賭,仲要係睇死幾多人派彩,就大有問題了
7. 咁以上種種涉及人命,爭議應該冇咁多,絶大多數人都覺得唔應該拎嚟做注碼。正如之前貼過個網,Election betting odds(https://bityl.co/4YO0),有得賭侵侵會唔唔會做晒成個任期。做唔晒嘅,whatever reason,都派彩。咁除咗自己辭職外,當然仲有猝死或其他意外。但唯獨係唔賠行刺,相信都係類似原因。
8. 但,如果唔涉及人命呢?只係在他人嘅mishap或痛苦身上獲利,有冇問題?似乎係冇的。
9. 首先,人命是人命,但痛苦就好難去量度。如果在他人嘅痛苦身上獲利有問題,咁即係,唔使打牌,唔使賭波,甚至唔使踢波了—你入波人地好傷心,可能人地啲球迷跳樓喎。但應該冇乜人覺得,我要對你嘅不幸負責。
10. 如果你講金融市場(留意我特登唔用「投資」),唔少遊戲,根本係 zero sum(但股票唔係!呢個真係常見謬誤)。你炒期貨嘅,你贏錢就有人輸錢架啦。
11. 但留意返,股票唔係呢回事,係positive sum game所以同賭錢或炒期指唔同。你3蚊買1137,渣到上12蚊,係冇人有損失的。當然我聽過有人話,冇買股票嘅會眼紅,生活水準會不如你 — 個龍門搬到咁濶嘅,就真係唔掂,即係我去食餐米芝蓮都會有人唔開心咁咯。
12. 界線,永遠都係唔多清。又睇下另一個例子,唔少人都有睇The Big Shot套戲,網友梗係覺得好睇,因為個個都係口水put,日日以為爆煲嘛,眾人皆醉我獨醒喎,全世界仆街得自己睇啱,幾咁開心。但故事主人翁真金白銀買落去,唔係上網出post。
13. 但留意嘅係,主人翁最後卒之等到爆煲,十分開心,跳老舞yeah.賺錢其次,證明自己啱先緊要。但呀廢老畢彼特制止佢地,叫佢地Don't fucking dance(https://ytube.io/3BYc)。點解?因為佢地贏錢,代表美國仆街,大把人流離失所要訓街,妻離子散。
14. 呢班人明顯係bet on other’s mishap.唔覺當年有乜人話有問題喎。退一萬步,個撚個都話買支爆 買聯匯爆煲 當 Kyle Bass 係偶像 係呀 美國加息呀 香港樓市崩潰呀 你班供樓嘅燒炭啦。又如何?好似冇人話不道德喎。
15. 返返去買保險個例,我諗其中一個好大嘅關鍵,就係你有冇份「引起」或者「加速」人地嘅不幸同痛苦。冇嘅,似乎冇乜問題。有嘅,就比較有問題。(*)
16. 例如講過CDS,Credit default Swap,買國家或公司爆煲,佢爆煲你有錢賠,都幾有爭議。本質上就同保險差不多,你都冇insurable interest。當然公司唔係人命。不過問題係,你買落去,有機會加速咗個過程喎。個CDS spared大升,人人覺得個國家或間嘢唔掂,融資成本更加,最後就self fulfilling.呢個亦係好多國家有時禁沽空嘅理據,你不停質低個價,兼且好可能去散播謠言,間公司就冇事都變有事。同你去周圍唱話銀行唔掂去擠提差不多。
17. 講返,311又好,911又好。你冇令到呢件事發生嘛,甚至冇加速呢件事發生。所以你事後去叫人買,我覺得係絶冇問題的。
18. 不過都加返句,但凡涉及人命嘅,標準都係高好多。例如之前嘅例子,買總統下台唔包遇刺,因為真係怕有啲友為咗贏錢去殺人(國定殺戳日?)。你不能幫個陌生人買保險,原因亦一樣。但Death Pool呢?我去買 成龍/江澤民 釘蓋,唔會加速咗有人去隊冧佢下話?但一樣被視為不道德
19. 以上種種講嘅係人命,但如果去到疫情,又好似唔係同一回事。唔少公司嘅股價同生意都大升,你總不人話人地發死人財,甚至你無限上綱嘅,藥廠由頭到尾都係做呢啲生意架啦,「殯儀館都係」「你唔病醫生邊有生意做」。咁你去買Zoom 買Netflix,又係咪人血饅頭?似乎唔係
20. 講咗咁多,都失晒焦。但我都係想講,喂,1137呀!第四波疫情,今日有冇得大升?為咗避免畀人批判,同埋都真係自己反省下,我諗咗以上嘅嘢。
21. 其實之前寫過好多,好多,好多次。再重覆一次。每次啲確診數字爆上去呢,1137就勁升的。你甚至唔使睇政府記者會(再講多次,股票一定炒將來,所以 fuck that 股市同實體經濟脫節)。朝早某啲傳媒,總會早早爆確診數字
22. 咁,今日隻1137有冇得大升?我就覺得有啲保留。因為,「今次係星期日出嘅數字」,「可能今日(星期一)跌返呢」。況且都係的,市場都有抗藥性,上星期五先升完十幾巴仙(圖中下半),今日又係咪照升多次?同樣道理,你見第一次輝瑞話有疫苗時,道指升1600點。到一星期後Moderna再講,反應已經細好多。
23. 哲學啲講,「你不能跨過同一條河兩次」。但又同樣地,「一個消息」點炒兩次?星期五個數字已經咁,咁去到星期日爆得更多,係咪完全意外?係咪「新資訊」?記住股票只反映「新資訊」。
(*)不過話說回頭,了解「人血饅頭」典故嘅,都知道群眾都冇份害死人,對不?所以魯迅係批評佢地(亦即係中國人as a whole)嘅愚眛,似乎唔係批評佢地係賤格。
================================
Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100蚊唔使,3個月已700人訂!(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)
===================
instagram @ivanliresearch.七成金融(短打)兩成嘢食一成其他嘢。
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