[祝君早安]王維基最開心吧。但,買股票會唔會畀人鬧?
TLDR:1137今日有冇得升?小小吧,一個消息點炒兩次?同場加映Michael Sandel式兩千字討論買疫情受惠股係咪人血饅頭
1. 大家當然會講跳老舞群組,以及啲年紀分佈,同埋君臨天下。呢啲交畀友版 新田飛地講啦 (不過佢呢排好似好忙)。本人呢,都係關心 王維基隻HKTV Mall 1137多啲。
2. 忽然醒起日本311地震時,本人都係叫訓身買落去。當時都畀中學師奶質疑我冷血。我不知道呢個係讚定彈,是但。反正最後互噴一輪口水,都係誰也說服不了誰。而當然可以話「嘩死咁多人你仲掛住呢啲」,不過,首先我(當時)嘅工作就係提供意見提供分析,你放工寫返幾萬字悼念,兩者並無矛盾。二來,再諗下,市場點都係有人買,否則就唔係跌10% 跌20%,係跌到冇成交。咁難道買嗰啲又冷血?好多都係日本人本身吧。當然再誇張啲嘅,可以講到你買落去先係支持日本人,又好似啱喎。
3. 講到尾,我覺得係WFC的。再睇另一個情況,美國911,當時我都仲在英國讀書。但你可以睇返,美股大跌後,媒體又好,投行又好,都係叫買。並不存在咩人血饅頭,唔好用得咁濫。
4. 我諗個關鍵係,你唔係「bet on other’s lives」嘛。掉轉頭,賣保險買保險嘅,都知有insurable interest,你不能幫個陌生人買人壽,佢死咗你有錢分。除咗係防止你去搵人斬死佢外,亦因為「拎人地條命嚟賭」,本質上就好多人不能接受。Michael Sandel在《Justice》之中有講(點會少得佢呢),仲有講Death Pool—例如我開個盤去買啲名人(成龍?江澤民?Morgan Freeman?)邊個死先。似乎唔會令你謀害佢,但本質上都係有啲問題。
5. 但,what about 有啲公司,幫自己嘅員工買保險(美國有的)?你死咗,公司有錢分。會唔會令佢疏忽啲?可能唔會,但,你係員工,會唔會唔多自在?
6. What about 所謂嘅prediction markets?政治期貨,林鄭幾時落台固然有得賭,但曾幾何時,連恐怖襲擊都有得賭,仲要係睇死幾多人派彩,就大有問題了
7. 咁以上種種涉及人命,爭議應該冇咁多,絶大多數人都覺得唔應該拎嚟做注碼。正如之前貼過個網,Election betting odds(https://bityl.co/4YO0),有得賭侵侵會唔唔會做晒成個任期。做唔晒嘅,whatever reason,都派彩。咁除咗自己辭職外,當然仲有猝死或其他意外。但唯獨係唔賠行刺,相信都係類似原因。
8. 但,如果唔涉及人命呢?只係在他人嘅mishap或痛苦身上獲利,有冇問題?似乎係冇的。
9. 首先,人命是人命,但痛苦就好難去量度。如果在他人嘅痛苦身上獲利有問題,咁即係,唔使打牌,唔使賭波,甚至唔使踢波了—你入波人地好傷心,可能人地啲球迷跳樓喎。但應該冇乜人覺得,我要對你嘅不幸負責。
10. 如果你講金融市場(留意我特登唔用「投資」),唔少遊戲,根本係 zero sum(但股票唔係!呢個真係常見謬誤)。你炒期貨嘅,你贏錢就有人輸錢架啦。
11. 但留意返,股票唔係呢回事,係positive sum game所以同賭錢或炒期指唔同。你3蚊買1137,渣到上12蚊,係冇人有損失的。當然我聽過有人話,冇買股票嘅會眼紅,生活水準會不如你 — 個龍門搬到咁濶嘅,就真係唔掂,即係我去食餐米芝蓮都會有人唔開心咁咯。
12. 界線,永遠都係唔多清。又睇下另一個例子,唔少人都有睇The Big Shot套戲,網友梗係覺得好睇,因為個個都係口水put,日日以為爆煲嘛,眾人皆醉我獨醒喎,全世界仆街得自己睇啱,幾咁開心。但故事主人翁真金白銀買落去,唔係上網出post。
13. 但留意嘅係,主人翁最後卒之等到爆煲,十分開心,跳老舞yeah.賺錢其次,證明自己啱先緊要。但呀廢老畢彼特制止佢地,叫佢地Don't fucking dance(https://ytube.io/3BYc)。點解?因為佢地贏錢,代表美國仆街,大把人流離失所要訓街,妻離子散。
14. 呢班人明顯係bet on other’s mishap.唔覺當年有乜人話有問題喎。退一萬步,個撚個都話買支爆 買聯匯爆煲 當 Kyle Bass 係偶像 係呀 美國加息呀 香港樓市崩潰呀 你班供樓嘅燒炭啦。又如何?好似冇人話不道德喎。
15. 返返去買保險個例,我諗其中一個好大嘅關鍵,就係你有冇份「引起」或者「加速」人地嘅不幸同痛苦。冇嘅,似乎冇乜問題。有嘅,就比較有問題。(*)
16. 例如講過CDS,Credit default Swap,買國家或公司爆煲,佢爆煲你有錢賠,都幾有爭議。本質上就同保險差不多,你都冇insurable interest。當然公司唔係人命。不過問題係,你買落去,有機會加速咗個過程喎。個CDS spared大升,人人覺得個國家或間嘢唔掂,融資成本更加,最後就self fulfilling.呢個亦係好多國家有時禁沽空嘅理據,你不停質低個價,兼且好可能去散播謠言,間公司就冇事都變有事。同你去周圍唱話銀行唔掂去擠提差不多。
17. 講返,311又好,911又好。你冇令到呢件事發生嘛,甚至冇加速呢件事發生。所以你事後去叫人買,我覺得係絶冇問題的。
18. 不過都加返句,但凡涉及人命嘅,標準都係高好多。例如之前嘅例子,買總統下台唔包遇刺,因為真係怕有啲友為咗贏錢去殺人(國定殺戳日?)。你不能幫個陌生人買保險,原因亦一樣。但Death Pool呢?我去買 成龍/江澤民 釘蓋,唔會加速咗有人去隊冧佢下話?但一樣被視為不道德
19. 以上種種講嘅係人命,但如果去到疫情,又好似唔係同一回事。唔少公司嘅股價同生意都大升,你總不人話人地發死人財,甚至你無限上綱嘅,藥廠由頭到尾都係做呢啲生意架啦,「殯儀館都係」「你唔病醫生邊有生意做」。咁你去買Zoom 買Netflix,又係咪人血饅頭?似乎唔係
20. 講咗咁多,都失晒焦。但我都係想講,喂,1137呀!第四波疫情,今日有冇得大升?為咗避免畀人批判,同埋都真係自己反省下,我諗咗以上嘅嘢。
21. 其實之前寫過好多,好多,好多次。再重覆一次。每次啲確診數字爆上去呢,1137就勁升的。你甚至唔使睇政府記者會(再講多次,股票一定炒將來,所以 fuck that 股市同實體經濟脫節)。朝早某啲傳媒,總會早早爆確診數字
22. 咁,今日隻1137有冇得大升?我就覺得有啲保留。因為,「今次係星期日出嘅數字」,「可能今日(星期一)跌返呢」。況且都係的,市場都有抗藥性,上星期五先升完十幾巴仙(圖中下半),今日又係咪照升多次?同樣道理,你見第一次輝瑞話有疫苗時,道指升1600點。到一星期後Moderna再講,反應已經細好多。
23. 哲學啲講,「你不能跨過同一條河兩次」。但又同樣地,「一個消息」點炒兩次?星期五個數字已經咁,咁去到星期日爆得更多,係咪完全意外?係咪「新資訊」?記住股票只反映「新資訊」。
(*)不過話說回頭,了解「人血饅頭」典故嘅,都知道群眾都冇份害死人,對不?所以魯迅係批評佢地(亦即係中國人as a whole)嘅愚眛,似乎唔係批評佢地係賤格。
================================
Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100蚊唔使,3個月已700人訂!(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)
===================
instagram @ivanliresearch.七成金融(短打)兩成嘢食一成其他嘢。
同時也有52部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過6,750的網紅Shukri Vlogs,也在其Youtube影片中提到,#netherlandsvsaustria #netherlandsvsaustriahighlights #netherlandsvsaustriaeuro2021 #netherlandsvsaustriahighlightseuro2021 #austriavsnetherlands #aus...
「betting odds」的推薦目錄:
- 關於betting odds 在 君子馬蘭頭 - Ivan Li 李聲揚 Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於betting odds 在 彭哥的贏家之路 Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於betting odds 在 唐家婕 - Jane Tang Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於betting odds 在 Shukri Vlogs Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於betting odds 在 Shukri Vlogs Youtube 的最佳貼文
- 關於betting odds 在 Shukri Vlogs Youtube 的最佳解答
- 關於betting odds 在 Premier League TITLE BETTING ODDS! Time to ... - YouTube 的評價
betting odds 在 彭哥的贏家之路 Facebook 的最佳貼文
想知道美國賭盤民調對於
川普與拜登的賭盤勝率嗎
看這裡有每天即時的走勢喔
邏輯跟戰鬥K線一樣
學過的就會解讀了
https://www.macromicro.me/charts/22691/us-2020-presidential-election-betting-odds
betting odds 在 唐家婕 - Jane Tang Facebook 的最佳解答
▫️Déjà vu 8/30/2020
▫️Betting Odds (賭盤勝率): 50.6% vs 49.1%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
betting odds 在 Shukri Vlogs Youtube 的精選貼文
#netherlandsvsaustria
#netherlandsvsaustriahighlights
#netherlandsvsaustriaeuro2021
#netherlandsvsaustriahighlightseuro2021
#austriavsnetherlands
#austriavsnetherlandshighlights
#austriavsnetherlandseuro2021
#austriavsnetherlandshighlightseuro2021
#netherlandseuro2021
#austriaeuro2021
netherlands vs austria prediction,
netherlands vs austria h2h,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020,
netherlands vs austria football,
netherlands vs austria head to head,
netherlands vs austria analysis,
netherlands vs austria betting tips,
netherlands vs austria betting,
netherlands vs austria betting odds,
netherlands vs austria channel,
netherlands vs austria correct score,
netherlands vs austria correct score prediction,
netherlands vs austria dream11 prediction,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020 prediction,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020 tickets,
netherlands vs austria football history,
netherlands vs austria game time,
netherlands vs austria key players,
netherlands vs austria kick off time,
netherlands vs austria lineup,
netherlands vs austria last match,
netherlands vs austria live score,
netherlands vs austria match prediction,
netherlands vs austria match,
netherlands vs austria match history,
netherlands vs austria odds,
netherlands vs austria oddschecker,
netherlands vs austria on tv,
netherlands vs austria prediction sportskeeda,
netherlands vs austria prediction sports mole,
netherlands vs austria results,
netherlands vs austria record,
netherlands vs austria score prediction,
netherlands vs austria sportskeeda,
netherlands vs austria time,
netherlands vs austria tickets,
netherlands vs austria tv channel,
netherlands vs austria venue,
netherlands vs austria who will win,
netherlands vs austria whoscored,
netherlands vs austria where to watch,
netherlands vs austria 11v11,
netherlands vs austria 17 jun 21 21 00,
netherlands vs austria 2021
betting odds 在 Shukri Vlogs Youtube 的最佳貼文
#netherlandsvsaustria
#netherlandsvsaustriahighlights
#netherlandsvsaustriaeuro2021
#netherlandsvsaustriahighlightseuro2021
#austriavsnetherlands
#austriavsnetherlandshighlights
#austriavsnetherlandseuro2021
#austriavsnetherlandshighlightseuro2021
#netherlandseuro2021
#austriaeuro2021
netherlands vs austria prediction,
netherlands vs austria h2h,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020,
netherlands vs austria football,
netherlands vs austria head to head,
netherlands vs austria analysis,
netherlands vs austria betting tips,
netherlands vs austria betting,
netherlands vs austria betting odds,
netherlands vs austria channel,
netherlands vs austria correct score,
netherlands vs austria correct score prediction,
netherlands vs austria dream11 prediction,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020 prediction,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020 tickets,
netherlands vs austria football history,
netherlands vs austria game time,
netherlands vs austria key players,
netherlands vs austria kick off time,
netherlands vs austria lineup,
netherlands vs austria last match,
netherlands vs austria live score,
netherlands vs austria match prediction,
netherlands vs austria match,
netherlands vs austria match history,
netherlands vs austria odds,
netherlands vs austria oddschecker,
netherlands vs austria on tv,
netherlands vs austria prediction sportskeeda,
netherlands vs austria prediction sports mole,
netherlands vs austria results,
netherlands vs austria record,
netherlands vs austria score prediction,
netherlands vs austria sportskeeda,
netherlands vs austria time,
netherlands vs austria tickets,
netherlands vs austria tv channel,
netherlands vs austria venue,
netherlands vs austria who will win,
netherlands vs austria whoscored,
netherlands vs austria where to watch,
netherlands vs austria 11v11,
netherlands vs austria 17 jun 21 21 00,
netherlands vs austria 2021
betting odds 在 Shukri Vlogs Youtube 的最佳解答
#netherlandsvsaustria
#netherlandsvsaustriahighlights
#netherlandsvsaustriaeuro2021
#netherlandsvsaustriahighlightseuro2021
#austriavsnetherlands
#austriavsnetherlandshighlights
#austriavsnetherlandseuro2021
#austriavsnetherlandshighlightseuro2021
#netherlandseuro2021
#austriaeuro2021
netherlands vs austria prediction,
netherlands vs austria h2h,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020,
netherlands vs austria football,
netherlands vs austria head to head,
netherlands vs austria analysis,
netherlands vs austria betting tips,
netherlands vs austria betting,
netherlands vs austria betting odds,
netherlands vs austria channel,
netherlands vs austria correct score,
netherlands vs austria correct score prediction,
netherlands vs austria dream11 prediction,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020 prediction,
netherlands vs austria euro 2020 tickets,
netherlands vs austria football history,
netherlands vs austria game time,
netherlands vs austria key players,
netherlands vs austria kick off time,
netherlands vs austria lineup,
netherlands vs austria last match,
netherlands vs austria live score,
netherlands vs austria match prediction,
netherlands vs austria match,
netherlands vs austria match history,
netherlands vs austria odds,
netherlands vs austria oddschecker,
netherlands vs austria on tv,
netherlands vs austria prediction sportskeeda,
netherlands vs austria prediction sports mole,
netherlands vs austria results,
netherlands vs austria record,
netherlands vs austria score prediction,
netherlands vs austria sportskeeda,
netherlands vs austria time,
netherlands vs austria tickets,
netherlands vs austria tv channel,
netherlands vs austria venue,
netherlands vs austria who will win,
netherlands vs austria whoscored,
netherlands vs austria where to watch,
netherlands vs austria 11v11,
netherlands vs austria 17 jun 21 21 00,
netherlands vs austria 2021
betting odds 在 Premier League TITLE BETTING ODDS! Time to ... - YouTube 的必吃
Dalen Cuff joins ESPN FC to recap the North London Derby and where to place your best with Arsenal in the Premier League title race. ... <看更多>