定宇分享這篇來自Nikkei Asia今天的報導和想法，這篇報導討論的是日本如何協助美國盯住中國潛艦，雖然談的是美日聯盟，但是內文提到的幾乎都跟台灣有關。特別是美國國防部長奧斯丁發表已經執行中的「整合嚇阻」，是否包括台灣軍方，值得推敲。
首先，報導提到美日領袖討論如何合作維持台海和平穩定，也論及自1969年以來，美日首腦首次聯合聲明提到台灣的重要性。
內容根據專家的說法，有三個重點：
1. 中國被淺灘包圍，不利潛艦運動，像日本和台灣可以讓潛艦直接進入深海，不易被監測。（附圖）
2. 中國潛艦從中國近海要駛往開闊海洋，必須通過第一島鏈構成的瓶頸或海峽。這是容易被掌握、監控而不利中國潛艦的，這是日本可以對美軍相當有助益的地方。
（定宇問：看看地圖，特別是在巴士海峽這段，台灣也是具備日本同樣條件，而且不可或缺，能缺少台灣嗎？）
3. 美國國防部長奧斯丁在上週五發表的「整合嚇阻」新概念，這將需要盟友夥伴間更緊密的合作，以利因應與過去完全不同的「未來戰爭」，而這樣的新概念已經是在執行中。
（定宇問：是否包括台灣？現實是一旦缺少台灣，島鏈就斷鏈而失去屏障！）
On Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin floated a new concept of “integrated deterrence.” It calls for allies to work “hand in hand” to prepare for a future war, which will look nothing like the “old wars” that Austin said he himself has executed over the past two decades.
“When you look at China’s submarine bases, every single one of them has a fair bit of shallow water that their submarines have to transit through in order to get to deep water,” Tom Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submariner.
A quick look at Google Earth shows that China’s coast is surrounded by light blue — which reflects shallow seas — in contrast to the dark blue deep waters that immediately drop off from the east coasts of Taiwan and Japan.
“For them to move from China’s near seas to the open ocean, they’re going to have to transit through different chokepoints and straits in the island chains,” said Shugart, also an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank. “That will provide opportunities for an adversary — the U.S. and our allies’ submarine forces — to monitor more closely and try to intercept them if we were involved in a conflict, or in the run-up to a conflict.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/US-eyes-using-Japan-s-submarines-to-choke-Chinese-navy
american think tank 在 "Think Tanks" Shaping US Policy - YouTube 的必吃
Washington D.C.'s research organizations -- the so-called " think tanks -- provide opinions and research on public-policy issues for ... ... <看更多>